The Impact Of Population Age Structure On Housing Price Fluctuations

As the pillar industry of China,the real estate industry plays an important role in the development of the national economy.Since the country introduced the policy of housing reform in 1998,the development of China's real estate market is particularly rapid.In recent years,the situation of high speed growth and dramatic fluctuation in housing prices has affected the needs of the people to live in security.At the same time,the population structure of China is undergoing great changes,and the aging of the population is increasing.The property market for population service attribute determines its development is bound by the influence and restriction of population factors.In the background of the aging of the population,the development of the real estate market will also face new problems.Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of population aging on housing price fluctuations,make regional differences analysis,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions.The research ideas of this paper are as follows: First of all,the background of the research is discussed.Especially,the reasons for the contradiction between supply and demand in real estate market are introduced from two aspects: supply and demand,and highlight that "people" is the ultimate object of real estate services,thus cutting into the theme of this paper.Then,the relevant literature at home and abroad is reviewed,including the factors affecting the fluctuation of house prices and the impact of the aging of the population on the fluctuation of house prices.From the perspectives of land,income,currency and urbanization,the former is summarized,and the latter is summarized from two perspectives,namely,viewpoints and research methods.Based on the experience of the predecessors and on the basis of appropriate innovation,the basic research methods of this paper have been obtained.Then,after reviewing the development process of the real estate market in China since the reform and opening up and the transformation process of the age structure of the population since the founding of new China,a partial equilibrium model of real estate market is established to study the impact of aging on population by increasing vacant housing and reducing housing demand.Then,based on the annual panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 1999 to 2016,the panel error correction model is used for empirical test,and impulse response analysis is used for prediction.Finally,the conclusion is drawn on the basis of the full text analysis,and the countermeasures are put forward.This paper has made innovations in three aspects: first,from the perspective of "human",we studied the rising housing price in China,emphasized the importance ofhousing for human existence,and had strong humanistic care.It also accords with the realistic needs and policy.Second,in terms of theory,combined with the research and conclusion of many scholars,a partial equilibrium intertemporal model of real estate market is established,and the relationship between age structure and housing price is dynamically analyzed.Third,establish a dynamic error correction model to study the short-term and long-term effects of population aging on price fluctuations;and using impulse response analysis to predict the impact of population age structure change long-term impact on housing prices,combined with the panel data and impulse response analysis advantages than traditional time series pulse response analysis is more reliable.Through the analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions: First,in the long run,population aging has a downward pressure on housing prices by increasing vacant housing and reducing housing demand for the appropriate age population.Second,there are significant regional differences in the impact of population aging on house prices.The eastern impact is the most profound,the central part is second,and the western impact is lagging behind.Third,at present,the negative impact of population aging on housing prices has not been revealed,mainly because of the positive impact of other important factors such as economic growth,residents' income increase and loose real estate policy.However,this does not change the situation of population aging in the long run to reverse the rise of housing prices.