Research Of Predicting Population Of Dongcheng In Beijing Through The Number Of House

Population affects the development of economy and society of Dongchengdirectly. Based on the current research of population prediction in domestic andforeign area, compared with the complex population model,house is more stable, easilyto see and predict the number, in the exploration of method of " planing ahead tocontrol population "、" controlling and managing person by house", we proposed thepopulation prediction plan by" house".The house number date is counted by205communities that managed by17subdistrict offices.In order to ensure the quality ofthe data,we asked the person in charge signed their name to distinguish where was thedate from,and we asked other-party to check the date,the result showed that house datewas accurate.Survey results showed that: as of the end of2012, Dongcheng had197,000of cottage,16,000sets of easy floor,230,000sets of floor. All the house canlived925,200people. Dongcheng as the capital of the most concentrated culture,contains many cultural-valuable house, historical and cultural blocks of house,protection of these house is the focus of the protection of historical and cultural city.Managed by company house and special house are difficult in the transformation ofthe house. Focus on the future population control target, in order to " improve thequality of house and improve the livelihood of the people ", we proposed suggestionsfor the transformation of the house:Firstly, transformated cottage and easy floor that in not-cultural-area;secondly,eased the people lived in underground space that the living condition wasrelatively lower;thirdly,explored the strategy that replace cultural value house withbusiness function house.In this case,we can achieve the purpose of population ease inthe protection of historical and cultural city.