The Calculation Of The Scale Of The International Speculative Capital In China And The Impact On Stock Market

After the eruption of Asian financial crises at the end of last century, International speculativecapital problem has caused a wide attention among domestic scholars. But until now, there islarger differences in many aspects of hot money. A prominent problem is the huge differenceson the calculation method of the international speculative capital scale. Therefore, based on therelated literature at home and abroad, We will use statistical methods to undertook quantitativeanalysis of China international speculative capital.This research mainly includes the theory study and empirical study. The theoretical part, Wewill introduce the concept of international speculative capital and its features, and we willanalyzes the main channel through which the international speculative capital can flow intoChina. Then, the time interval during which the international capital inflow into China as well asthe calculation method will be determined.The part of empirical study, firstly according to theinternational speculative capital calculation formula, various adjustment on the formulas willbe estimated. This paper mainly focused on the adjustment of the increase in foreign reserves,the adjustment of trade surplus adjustment as well as the inflow of FDI adjustment. The increasein foreign reserves adjustment mainly focused on changes in the exchange rate as well asinvestment income; the trade surplus adjustment will be done by time series model; For theadjustment of FDI,we will use ADF test and EG test to established a linear regression modelbetween FDI and each variable.Secondly, This paper also uses the ADF test and Graingercausality test to study the effect of international speculative capital on our country stock marketThrough this study we’ve found that from1993to the end of2010, The overall scale ofInternational speculative capital that inflows into the territory of China is not large, but the largeamplitude fluctuation do have the existence.At the same time, there is a significant correlationbetween the international speculative capital and stock market.At last,this article puts forwardthe related policy suggestion from the prevention of international speculative capital inflow andthe regulatory of already-entered international speculative capital...