Payment System Risk Early-warning Study Of Commercial Bank In China

With the reform of China’s economy, financial development and perfection of the Central Bank, China is also constantly working to improve payment systems in order to adapt to the development of our country’s economic and financial market demand on payment systems. However, But what is worrying is that in-depth discussions of pay systematic risks have not been given due attention. If you want to pay the entire "big payment" to analyze the level of payment system risks is extremely difficult. As commercial bank payment system is the basis and core of the whole payment system, so studying the risk of commercial bank payment system is of great feasibility and practical significance. Therefore, I believe that the analysis of the causes,the monitoring, recognition and measurement of the commercial bank payment system risk can’t be ignored.From the narrow point of view, the payment is the actual transfer of currency in hand, the operation of the payment system is the technical processes of payment instruction application.The participators involved in running the payment system are not only the owners and managers of the payment system, but also the users of the payment system. The efficiency of payment systems, to a large extent determine the overall efficiency of economic operation. Therefore, a strong, efficient payment system is critical for the economic operation facilitating role.Social development process is inseparable with risks, whether financial risk or other types of risks, are all objective realities in the process of social development. Payment system risks can cause the systemic risk and chain reaction of financial institutions, can affect public confidence in the banking system.In the daily operations of commercial banks activities, from within the bank, the intentional or unintentional human operational errors are the main reasons for the formation of the payment system risks. In China, the risk of human-based payment system is a major component of risk.For a long time, because of the unreasonable awareness of the payment system risk, China’s commercial banks frequently encounter the loss of the event caused by the payment system risk. And because China’s commercial banks place little emphasis on the accumulation of historical data of loss of payment system risks, the data about the payment system risk are very poor, the payment system risk management is very difficult. The information disclosure system of China’s commercial banks is not perfect, the banks have a hidden motive of risk events, so it is more difficult to collect historical data of China’s commercial banks’payment system risk.On this basis, the author selected 24 indicators for easier access to data to build a Chinese commercial bank payment system risk early warning system. In this paper, i use the idea of principal component to remove the multicollinearity problem. I give four prevention recommendations to keep away the payment system risk:to strengthen the commercial banking system of payment systems, improve the commercial bank payment systems; improve the laws and regulations relating to payment and settlement system; to strengthen the payment system participants in the payment risk management; foster and promote good,sound social credit environment.