The Mutual Relationship Between Real Economy And Fictitious Economy

In recent decades, Especially since the nineties of the last century, Rapid expansion of financial assets and a variety of financial derivative instruments has brought great vitality to the world economy. As corresponds to the concept of real economy, fictitious economy is the product of social division of labor and scientific and technological development to a certain stage. Fictitious economy and real economy constitute a new Patten of modem economy system.一、The study perspective of this dissertationThis paper will explore the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy based on our country’s capital market. There are two reasons:First, capital market, as the most important organizational form of fictitious economy, it not only covers all the main features of fictitious economy and is the most mature part of it, But it is also the basis of other economy forms. Second, the development of capital market dominates the fictitious economy and plays an important part in driving fictitious economy into development stage, promoting it rapid growth and guiding the future direction of the fictitious economy.二、The main structure of this dissertationThe first chapter is introduction. In the first, analyze the background and significance; Secondly, summarize the research situation; thirdly, introduce the research method、research ideas and main features.The second chapter is overview of the dissertation. Defines the connotation of real economy and fictitious economy, the characteristics of fictitious economy; analyze relationship between real economy and fictitious economy from the initiative and intrinsic ties.The third chapter is the core content of the dissertation. It can be divided into four parts. Firstly, analyze the relationship between two with descriptive statistics. Secondly, quantitatively analyze the relationship on aggregate between the two. Once again, their relationship is further explored by use of gray from the spectral composition that is also the structure of both. Finally, by using the recent theory research, re-estimates the flow speed of currency of our country on the basis of money circulating flow model. And on this basis, make further study of the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy.The fourth chapter is part of the theory with practice. On the basis of previous tree parts, specifically discuss the approach and strategic choice of promoting the development of positive interaction of real economy and fictitious economy from the expansion level.The fifth chapter is conclusion. Summary and card the paper Mainly from the findings of this study、under-research、and further research direction三、The innovation of this dissertationFirstly, the past research is made on the basis of stock market, while this article has a different perspective of analysis. This article is based on a study on the capital market. In the characterization of the relationship of the real and fictitious economy, this article comprehensively considerate the stock market, bonds market, future market and so on, so it is more perfect and precise to measure the development of fictitious economy than singly consider the stock market.Secondly, on the basis of study of the scale of development in the past, further study the relationship in the internal structure of the two. Explore the relationship between various departments of fictitious economy(including the stock market, bond market, futures market) and kinds of sectors(including industry, agriculture, construction, etc),and then isolate the most important sectors that impacts the fictitious and real economy. So as to more deeply explore the specific links between the two, avoiding use just a few macro-economic indicators to measure the relationship between the two in the existing research. Meanwhile, according to coordination theory, calculate the degree of association between the two in different cycles of our economy. So it provides important guidance ideas for China’s economic development in different stages of national macro-control policies.Thirdly, by using the recent theory research, re-estimates the flow speed of currency of our country on the basis of money circulating flow model. And then make further study of the relationship between real economy and fictitious economy.四、The main conclusions of this dissertationFirstly, China’s real economy and the fictitious economy have a long-run equilibrium relationship in the aggregate, they promote each other, reinforce each other. However, the impact of each other is not symmetry; the fictitious economy’s impact on the real economy is greater than real economy’s impact on the fictitious economy. The empirical results can’t support the view that fictitious economy is a deviation of real economy, but they develop rapidly in the interaction promotion. At present, there is no sufficient evidence to prove that China’s real economy and the fictitious economy has deviated from each other. The point of view that fictitious economy is harmful can’t is less reasonable.on the contrary, the fictitious economy promotes real economy.Secondly, in the whole, China’s real economy and fictitious economy has a strong correlation in structure. From the structure of fictitious economy, stocks, bonds play greater important part in promoting real economy than funds, foreign exchange market. From the structure of real economy, industrial, transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail have more close relationship with fictitious economy.The volatility of associated degree between China’s real economy and fictitious economy is frequent, most are located between 0.65 and 0.89. Second, at different stages of China’s economic development, there are differences that the real economy coupled with the fictitious economy. From 1998 to 2000 correlation is slow down, from 2001 to 2002 correlation show a moderate degree of an upward trend while from 2003 to 2008; it experienced an increase, decrease, up process.Thirdly, Based on Circular-flow model, the test of coordination of China’s real economy and fictitious economy show as follows, first, the velocity of money in China’s fictitious economy Vspt is higher than the velocity of money in the real economy Vpt. In addition to 1993,2000-2001 and 2006-2008, the rest of the year, Vspt/Vpt ratios are greater than 1. Second, when China’s stock market develop well, the proportion of the fictitious asset in the whole economic system increase and the asset price will also rise, reflected in the graph shall be quantitative indicatorsβ1、surplus rates and changes in the Shanghai index has a fairly consistent, almost synchronous changes. Third, the relationship between China’s real economy and the fictitious economy develop in the basic state in the years 1994-1999,2002-2005 normal. While in 1993,2000-2001 and 2006-2008, the co-ordination of China’s real economy and fictitious economy is in bad situation, it mainly embody that funds in the stock market emerge great changes in quantities, which has brought adverse impact to the steady growth of real economy and the coordinative development of real and fictitious economy.