| The stock market price and the value of intrinsic always appear deviation. This deviation could be traded between investors, the power imbalance, the market news over-reflected, or body caused by manipulation. How to determine price deviation is the result of institutional manipulation? How to measure body-fixing? To explain the abnormal stock price changes is very important.Allen and Gale (1992) manipulation of the body divided into 3 types: behavioral control, information-based manipulation and trade-based manipulation. Song Xiaohui and Chen Min (2009) [1] that will be in the market to manipulate prices, trading volume, as well as ownership changes, etc. reveal clues, so you can price and volume from the relationship between changes in the number of shareholders, the per capita market value change, closing price of the relative up or down, stock trading accounts to identify the stock price manipulation, the initial establishment of the stock price manipulation recognition system.Rajesh K. Aggarwal University of Minnesota and Houston University, Wu-jun (2006) [2] found that most of the stock market manipulation took place in a relatively inefficient market, stock manipulation, often have higher liquidity, earnings rate and volatility, and the majority tend to rise rather than fall.Statman, and Shef rin (1994) was extended to the CAPM, asset pricing theory model formulation of the act (BAPM). Through the introduction of wealth, preferences, habit formation, chase fads, loss aversion, envy, and other behavioral factors to re-structure the capital asset pricing model. BAPM will investors are divided into the information traders and noise traders. Informed traders to act strictly in accordance with CAPM that there is no systematic bias; noise traders are not acting in accordance with CAPM will be guilty of a variety of cognitive bias error. Two types of traders affect each other jointly determine asset prices.Domestic financial asset pricing theory research has focused on empirical analysis. Empirical studies have shown that, CAPM is not applicable to China’s securities market, B can not contain all the factors that affect stock returns, stock returns and B correlation is not significant. In the asset pricing model, based on the introduction of behavioral finance theory to explain to manipulate stock prices, can better explain the financial markets, there is a price anomaly.Domestic scholars manipulation research is a kind of unstructured ideas, theories and models that do not involve body manipulation of specific internal behavior, ignore the specific form of manipulation, focusing on the costs and benefits of the general framework for the conduct and to explanation for this to cause unusual fluctuations in stock prices.Research and to manipulate the stock price and intrinsic value of the deviation are intimately related. Deviation of the stock market to calculate the intrinsic value there are two main methods:the external test and internal metrics. External Inspection Act was passed price index, price-earnings ratio (P/E), the stock market capitalization rate/nominal GDP growth rate in the calculation of such indicators, or indicators in accordance with relevant characteristics of mathematical statistics to establish a measurement model checking the size and characteristics of the stock market bubble.The residual income model (Feltham-Ohlson, F-O) with the calculation of net book value of shareholders equity and the future expected return on equity, after deducting the cost of equity capital and the discounted value method to determine the intrinsic value of the stock. Just rights and interests of book value, book value growth rate, net capital gains rate, cost of equity capital and other data, we can better the price of the stock market in the degree of deviation from quantitative analysis of the value of assets, free cash flow model for the real economy than in a more good explanatory power, help to further determine the degree of institutional control.The existing literature in research institutions, price-fixing issue, focused on the phenomenon of institutional control, institutional operational features such as from a behavioral finance perspective, or from the perspective of game theory, the model analysis, starting from the intrinsic value of the stock, combined with behavior financial theory of stock price and intrinsic value of the degree of deviation less, especially for specific industries and individual stocks, the lack of empirical analysis of industries and individual stocks. In this paper, F-O correction model to measure the intrinsic value of the stock.F-O empirical model has some defects, it assumes that investors are able to do an indefinite future projections. This assumption is not realistic. In real applications, due to the limited rationality of investors’awareness, they are not on the future residual income in each period to predict, only a period of time on the company’s profitability and the duration to predict.Wang Wen, Zhang Yi-chun (2009) [3] on the F-O model was amended, assuming that investors in the company’s future can only predict the situation during the year N, for N years later the situation can not be predicted. And select the A shares of all listed companies and select the sample of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index for the statistical sample, carried out an empirical test. According to the amended model is the intrinsic value of deviation calculations, the overall value of the stock market over-and underestimate the phenomenon of conclusions.In this paper, Wang Wen, Zhang Yi-chun of the FO correction model, according to the characteristics of China’s economic development in recent years, select 15 years, which can be used to predict future earnings, and select the iron and steel, coal, electronics and information industry and three Synopses, Baosteel conduct an empirical analysis of individual stocks. Choose iron and steel, coal, and electronic information industries, because these three sectors represent a certain extent, infrastructure, energy, science and technology stock market performance of listed companies, is the representation of China’s economic development industry. Select Synopses, Baosteel shares as the main reason is that the two samples of stocks as the representative of a large state-owned enterprises, its performance stable, large scale, difficult to manipulate the market by the causal factors affecting the performance of small, liquidity is good, with good market representative, their prices deviate from the subject to manipulate less affected.The study found, F-O model for the industry and the applicability of individual stocks equally, according to model calculation of the stock prices deviate from the intrinsic value of the degree of manipulation and can serve as a stock company by the herd behavior of basic assumptions about the impact of the standard. This method can be applied to specific analysis of individual stocks to manipulate. The results show that China’s stock market manipulation widespread the phenomenon of herd behavior and institutions, the broader market stocks also exist significant herd behavior.The principal innovation of this article is based on China’s economic development situation; select the 15-year forecast as the length of the intrinsic value of the stock, and F-O model is applied to the industry and specific to the study of individual stocks.The article discusses the following line of thought started:First, introduce investors to the stock market behavior, as well as to manipulate the performance, and then amend F-O model years and the application of a revised model of the industry, an empirical analysis of individual stocks, and the final conclusion.The main contents of each chapter:the first chapter describes the principal investors in the stock market’s behavior. Principal investor in the stock market is the various types of investors, including various types of institutional investors and small and medium investors. The main behavioral characteristics of investors, there are herding behavior and manipulation of stock prices has different effects. The second chapter describes the phenomenon of identification to manipulate the stock market. Stock prices and volume from the relationship between the changes in the number of shareholders, the per capita market value increase or decrease, closing prices, the relative up or down, stock trading accounts, etc. to identify the agency’s stock price manipulation, the initial establishment of the stock price manipulation recognition system. Chapter III of the stock prices deviate from the value of the analytical models are introduced. F-O model introduced the characteristics and meaning, Wang Wen, Zhang Yi-chun amendments to the model, as well as empirical analysis. The fourth chapter describes the F-O correction model in specific sectors and individual stocks in the empirical analysis. Select the data to determine the predicted number of years, selecting specific sectors and individual stocks empirical analysis, according to analysts to manipulate the degree of deviation. Chapter V does a Conclusion.This lack of:As stock market prices deviate from the intrinsic value of stocks, how to determine which are caused by institutional operations, which is due to the bubble caused by the market itself, which is the market herd behavior caused by small and medium investors, and how to be removed further degree of deviation normal market fluctuations, the subject involved, the length is too large, it is difficult in a paper discussed in detail. Discussed for the further research. |
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