Research On The Prediction Of Stock Price And Intrinsic Value Deviation Of Fishery Listed Companies

With the advancement of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,fisheries hasgradually become China's strategic industry.People's investment prospects in the fishery capital market are also becoming more and more concerned,and they are paying more and more attention to deviations in the stock price and intrinsic value of the fishery capital market..Companies in the capital market respond to intrinsic value through stock prices,and value investors will choose what they think is worth investing in the market according to their value.When the deviation of the stock price from the intrinsic value is relatively large,it may lead investors to make wrong investment judgments to a certain extent,thereby causing a stir in the entire capital market.Therefore,it is of great significance to make a reasonable assessment of the deviation of the stock price and the intrinsic value of listed fishery companies.On the basis of previous studies,this paper evaluates the intrinsic value of China Fisheries Group Corporation,one listed company of China,from1998 to 2016 by using the residual income model,and takes it as an example to study the correlation between the stock price and intrinsic value of listed companies in fishery,and verifies the applicability of value theory in fishery capital market.At the same time,the paper analyzes whether there is bubble in fishery capital market and the degree of it.Meanwhile,on this basis,the paper studies and predicts the future deviation of stock price and intrinsic value of other eight listed companies in fishery,and draws useful conclusions accordingly.In view of the gradual expansion of the forecast deviation trend,I put forward countermeasures and suggestions respectively from the perspective of the national government,companies and individual investors,in order to guide the government to make more strict supervision,enterprise better management and investors more rational investment,etc.,to promote the healthy and orderly development of China's fishery capital market.Through the research on the correlation between stock price and intrinsic value of China Fisheries Group Corporation,we find that the correlation between stock price and intrinsic value is related to a certain degree,and the two tend to converge,and the stability of intrinsic value is higher.Because of the stable nature of prices,we can,to a certain extent,roughly believe thatvalue theory is applicable in reclaimed water fisheries,that is,value theory is applicable in the fishery capital market.However,according to the trend of deviation between the stock price of inland water fishery and intrinsic value after 2009,in order to study whether there is the same trend in the fishery capital market,we have made a simple predictive analysis of the trend of the deviation between the stock price and the intrinsic value of other eight fishery listed companies.Combined with the applicability of value theory in fishery capital markets,given that the duration of listed companies is generally between10-20 years,this paper uses the multiple of the duration to be 5 to analyze and predict the trend of deviation between stock price and intrinsic value in the fishery capital market.It was found that it still follows the trend of increasing deviation from 2009 after China Fisheries Group Corporation.In order to verify the impact of the trend and fixed variables,we chose to use the dividend ratio to achieve a re-verification,given the relatively small change in the discount rate.The results show that the proportion of dividends is positively correlated with the degree of deviation,but the trend of fishery capital market deviation is still increasing.Based on the analysis of the above empirical research,combined with the development of China Fisheries Group Corporation,we found that the development of the fishery capital market is not mature and stable.Many of the companies in the fishery capital market have state holdings.Therefore,changes in national policies have a great impact on the fishery capital market.Furthermore,the operation of fishery listed companies is not unreasonable which leads to fluctuations in stock prices.This triggers the contradiction between stock price and intrinsic value.Finally,most investors in our country are retail investors,which,to a certain extent,are not as rational as institutional investors.Generally,they tend not to make correct investment decisions,and the herd effect is obvious.Under the combined effect of the above factors,the degree of deviation was gradually expanded.Therefore,we propose to improve the effective mechanism of thesecurities market,make full use of "invisible",appropriately reduce government intervention,gradually realize the market-oriented operation of the securities market,strict information disclosure system and financial audit system,and effectively weaken market information.The phenomenon of symmetry,the introduction of institutional investors,makes the investment relatively rational.At the same time,it is necessary to determine the correct investment strategy.The company should appropriately reduce the proportion of dividends while maintaining normal operations.Rules and regulations should be used to regulate and optimize the management structure to ensure the quality of information disclosure and the effectiveness of enterprise management.Investors should also strive to cultivate rational investment ideas.To avoid blindly following the trend.In order to make the fishery capital market more mature and stable development.