| As an important basis sector of the national economy, energy and the stability of macroeconomic have very close relation. In the process of transimission, the energy price plays an important role. Under the analysis of energy price changes on the theory of macroeconomic transimission mechanism, this paper selects GDP,CPI,energy consumption per person,energy price and the unemployment rate data of all provinces from 1997 to 2008 based on panel-var model analysis, finds that the energy price changes affect the rate of economy growth. The empirical results show that in the short term, because of the increasing energy prices, cpi will be promoted, energy consumption per person will be declined and the rate of unemployment will be increased. At the same time, the increased energy prices will play the direct and indirect roles on the economic growth, and slow the pace of economic growth. But in the long term, economic growth will be raised by the increased energy price.Then on the basis of input-output tables of 42 departments in 2007, this paper use imput-output price model to calculates the price of coal, electricity, oil and gas price increases the price level for each sector of the greatest degree of impact, and to analysze the other industry sectors’price level volatility along with the rising price of coal under the coal linkage mechanism. While taking advantage of the calculated level of price changes in each industry, to simulate the energy price changes on the general price level of the overall economic impact. The empirical results show that even the role of the price to maximize the transimission conditions, higher energy prices do not moderate economic growth and general price would have much thrust.Finally, in order to make better respond to the energy prices which plays important role in the allocation of ecnomis operation and environmental protection, this paper gives some policy recommendations on the empirical results. |
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