Research On The Non-linear Influence Of Urban Housing Price On Economic Growth In China Based On Panel Threshold Model

In 1998,China began to reform the housing supply monetization and marketization.After the reform,the real estate market in China developed rapidly,becoming the pillar industry of the national economy at one stroke and affecting the speed and quality of China's economic growth.On the one hand,real estate is also characterized by strong correlation.The change in housing prices will affect the logistics,building materials,and financial related frontier industries,which will affect economic growth.On the other hand,the change in house prices will affect the wealth effect of housing prices.Tobin's Q effect and financial accelerator effect influence consumers' consumer behaviors and investment behaviors of real estate development companies,thereby affecting total consumption and total investment,and further affecting economic growth.Therefore,the impact of housing prices on economic growth has become an important issue for all sectors of society and academia.The current research on the impact of housing prices on economic growth is mainly based on the macro level.For China,the real estate market has experienced regional differentiation in recent years.The economic level and development speed among different provinces and cities and cities are not the same;house prices have changed.The impact on economic growth will show obvious regional differences due to the different levels of regional economic development.Therefore,the study of the non-linear effects of housing prices on the economy has important reference significance for the local government to develop relevant real estate policies according to local conditions.Based on the utility theory,this paper analyzes the impact of house price changes on the economic behavior of residents and real estate developers,and concludes that “the effect of house price changes will have an impact on economic growth,and this effect is a nonlinear” proposition.Based on this,the paper uses panel data from 224 cities in China in 2003-2015,based on the panel threshold model,empirically analyzes the impact of house price changes on economic growth,and further carries out the development stage of 224 cities from 2003 to 2015.At the same time,further statistical analysis was conducted on the development stages of the 224 cities in 2003,2009,and 2015 and the provinces they belonged to.The conclusion is: The price changes have a significant three-fold effect on economic growth,with three thresholds.The level of economic development is divided into four stages.The coefficient of influence of changes in house prices in the first,second,third and fourth stages on economic growth is increased in the above order,that is,the effect of house price changes on economic growth will follow economic development.The level increases and gets bigger.Finally,for cities in different stages of development,based on the impact of changes in house prices on the economic growth in various stages of different levels,according to local conditions put forward real estate market regulation and control policy recommendations.For cities whose economic development level is in the fourth stage,we should strengthen land management,strengthen financial supervision,standardize the behavior of real estate development companies,and crack down on speculative behavior of real estate to prevent the emergence of real estate price bubbles.For cities with economic development at the first,second,and third stages,an encouraging real estate industry policy should be formulated to clarify the orientation of the real estate industry in this city's industry,to do a good job in the development planning of the real estate industry,and to give play to real estate's economic growth.The government should also regulate the behavior of real estate developers through administrative measures and regulate the real estate market so as to ensure the healthy and stable growth of the local economy.