The Research On The Domestic Price Level Affected By The International Petroleum Price

Petroleum price, as a very sensitive issue of the world economy, its change has a great impact on the country’s economic lifeline. Recently, most of the researches about oil fluctuation are based on the macroscopic view, but with the increasing dependence on the international market, the petroleum price fluctuations affect more on our domestic price level. Based on the fact that the domestic price level affected by the international petroleum price, this paper will study the following two periods: petroleum net export trade period and net import trade period. By way of the economic price conduction theory, it analysis the relationship between them in the two periods theoretically: the international petroleum price fluctuations directly conduct the purchase price of the raw materials, fuel and momentum; then affect the ex-factory price of the industrial products; at last, transfer to the consumer price. During the net petroleum exporter period, the international petroleum price fluctuations affect the domestic price as an increasing style price fluctuation, and during the petroleum net importer period, as a cost push style price fluctuation. Based on the VAR model, this paper uses the cointegration analysis, ECM model, Granger causality tests and impulse response function in econometrics to test the extensiveness, and the intensiveness of the international petroleum price impact on the domestic price level during the 1994-2010 in the system of five sets of two variables. In a short period of time, The rise of international petroleum price has the remarkable influence on our country law material,fuel,momentum purchase price and the ex-factory price of industrial products,but the influence to consumer price is not remarkable. In the long term, the international petroleum price fluctuations on the level of representatives of the three indexes are increasing day by day. Therefore, the government should optimize the energy structure, change the petroleum import trade way, strengthen the national petroleum storage and improve the petroleum futures market.