An Empirical Study Of Coupons To Stimulate Consumption

The econometric model used in this paper is the well-known time series prediction method created by Box and Jenkins——SARIMA model. In this article, we select the Hangzhou coupons as a case, and integrate the theoretical and empirical research methods, focusing on the effectiveness of the policy Hangzhou introduced, depicting the track of effect of consumption coupons policy changing in the timeline, and further identify the underlying causes of this phenomenon.The article is based on monthly data of three statistical indicators-total retail sales, wholesale and retail trade, catering forehead of Hangzhou from2002to2008. With the extrapolation mechanism of SARIMA, we obtain the statistics from January to November in2009removing the effect of coupons. Through the comparison of the predicted values and actual values, the analysis shows the difference between the implementation of the coupons policies and the implementation of the coupons policy, and finally come to the conclusion that the first phase implementation of coupons policy has little effect while the second phase has obvious effect with the inverted U-shaped trajectory. There are three causes that lead to the different effects of policies of coupons. First, the coupons of the two-phase point to the different products with various income——consumption elasticity. The first phase of coupons in Hangzhou is in the field of daily consumption, in which the products focus on the department of the necessities of life with low income——consumption elasticity. But most of the coupons issued by the second phase are in the high elasticity of income and consumption sectors. Secondly, the coupons in the first stage have low linkages to the backward and forward industries, and coupons of the second phase such as the travel coupons focused on the industries of strong correlation effect. Finally, compared to the first phase coupons, the coupons of the second phase also expanded the types of coupons and scope in addition to the quantitative scale, and provide a variety of choices for the consumer, which mobilize the various types of consumer enthusiasm.