The Demand Forecast And Development Research Of High-grade Senile Apartment In Jinan City

The aging of population is the inevitable trend of social development, with theintensification of the trend of population aging, the resulting pension problem has been theattention of scholars at home and abroad. Accompanied by changes in family structure inChina, the drawbacks of the family security way continue to emerge, social security came intobeing. In the way of social security，nursing homes，homes for the elderly, low-standard senileapartment and so on all have a certain lack in quality of service and size. By comparison,high-grade senile apartment has a higher quality of service, a more beautiful environment, amore professional care team and a more complete functionality. It could make older peoplemore satisfied and more happiness and they could continue to play their social value afterretirement. On the other hand, with the continuous improvement of the income level andconsumption level, the pension demands of the old is increasingly diverse, high-end, calls forthe development of high-grade senile apartment for the elderly.The fourth census data showed that in 1990 seven provinces and cities including Beijing,Shanghai, Guangdong and Shandong Province became the first region entered the agingsociety，as the provincial capital, Jinan City’s aging trend was more obvious, its proportion ofpeople aged over 60 in 2008 ranks third after Yantai, Weihai. But the apartment for the agedwas in the early stages of development, the contradiction between supply and demand wasprominent. At the same time that many elderly people could not find a satisfactory pensionapartment in the market, the idle rate of the majority of middle and low apartments for theelderly was high.This article firstly analyzed the macroeconomic background and significance of thedevelopment of high-grade senile apartment on the national scale, regarding the theoreticalresults and practical status quo at home and abroad as a guide. Secondly the need fordevelopment of high-grade senile apartment for the elderly was analyzed following theresearch of the developing status quo and problem of the apartment for the aged in Jinan. Thispaper used the GM（1,1）model to predict the number of the population aged 60 and over inthe year 2012-2020 and analyzed the income level of them, thinking that there is thefeasibility of developing high-grade senile apartment in Jinan. Then by conducting aquestionnaire survey on high-income older age groups to summary, compare and analysis thetypical high-end apartments for the elderly development model, ultimately determining the type selection of high-end apartments for the elderly and a migrant development model withthe combination of rental system and membership. Finally we proposed a solution for thedevelopment of high-grade apartments for the elderly from government, business and publicthree angles in order to provide a reference for the development of the apartment market forthe aged in Jinan and the whole real estate market.