Crude Oil Prices Forecasting And Analysis On The Influence Of Shipping Industry

As international commodity, crude oil is the world’s most important foundation energy, both for a country’s political stability and economic development, so as a strategic material, crude oil often becomes the focus of the big game between different countries. Due to the influence of the emergency, the price of the international crude oil often deviated from the normal market price level, giving crude oil price forecast a lot of trouble. The problem of crude oil prices prediction is related to oil production enterprise, oil consumption enterprise and national interests, is of the important support for domestic enterprises to participate in the international competition. So prediction of crude oil prices as accurate as possible is particularly important. This paper first analysis the influence of oil price fluctuations, from the point of view of international crude oil supply and demand;And then analyses the influence for the crude oil prices in the calendar year when happened geopolitical events, and make structure breakpoint detection for it. Finding that in those incidents occurred in, crude oil prices would be obvious deviating from the normal market price, so we can make a conclusion that crude oil prices under the influence of these incidents is not reflect true market price, there is a reason to identified these data as singular samples. On this basis, the method of SVM was applicated in crude oil price index forecasting, the genetic algorithm was used in order to find the best kernel function g and punish parameter c of SVM model. Then the ARMA was imposed on the model to fixed the predict result, As far as possible to eliminate the influence of error information on the prediction results. The empirical analysis shows that, the model based on fuzzy particle GA-SVM-ARMA can forecast crude oil prices well.This paper also analyzes the crude oil price index fluctuations the influence of the shipping industry, found that the price of crude oil influence shipping market through the shipping costs, shipping demand, shipping efficiency; In order to further analysis of this kind of influence, established VAR model of the crude oil price index and BDI index, the results indicate that oil prices on the influence of the BDI is more significant in the periodic period of time when shipping needs no obviously.