Construction And Empirical Analysis Of Risk Stress Testing System On China’s Real Estate Enterprises

Since the late1990s, real estate has been the leading industry which drives the sustaining growth of the national economy. In recent years, with the quickening of urbanization and the highlighting of real estate investment speculation attributes, the real estate industry is developing rapidly. The rapid development of the real estate industry give real estate enterprises a very good development opportunity, many real estate enterprises grasp this opportunity and obtain the unprecedented development, which ranks into the famous enterprises. However, opportunities are often parallel with risks, rapid development is also hidden behind a deadly risk, many real estate enterprises with no timely detection and control these risks and suffer a great loss even to destruction. Many cases①show that, once certain risks, especially in some extreme events②, often cause irreparable damage to the real estate enterprises, even lead them to bankruptcy.At the same time, as an extreme event risk measurement tool, Stress Testing is widely used in the field of finance, especially after the occurrence of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in2007, many international financial institutions and banks have increased the research of Stress Testing both in theory and practice. So far, Stress Testing has been developed to be a mature risk quantification technology. For this reason, according to the convergence of the different areas of risk management and characteristics of real estate enterprise risk, this paper makes an attempt to introduce stress testing into the real estate enterprise risk management, in order to help real estate enterprises prevent and manage the risk caused by extreme events.In this paper, we use the method of combining theoretical research and empirical research to study, interspersed with the method of literature analysis, analogy, and factor analysis. First of all, on the basis of previous theoretical studies of real estate enterprise risk management and Stress Testing, the paper constructs a theoretical framework of the real estate enterprise risk stress testing, and developed the process of implementation of the real estate enterprise risk stress testing; then, with the listed real estate companies as an example, the paper makes an risk stress testing empirical research on China’s real estate enterprises. The stress testing results show that:In the face of the impact of real estate control policies, listed real estate companies as a whole under pressure is not strong, especially the implementation of "restriction order" policy listed real estate companies,"real estate tax" policy followed by the minimum "land management" policy; under the impact of real estate control policies, the state-owned real estate listed companies and private listed real estate companies have different effects, private listed real estate companies under pressure are relatively better than the state-owned listed real estate companies; under the impact of real estate control policies, the listed real estate companies have different risk exposure level or different stress resistance. Finally, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical research, the paper puts forward some corresponding policies and proposals on real estate enterprises’ risk management.