Influencing Of Anhui Economy By The Development Of The Export-orient Economy In Wanjiang Urban Undertaking Industrial Transfer Demonstration Plot

From January12th,2010, it has been two years since the reply of "Wanjiang urban undertaking industrial transfer demonstration area". During the beginning of this tenth "five-year-period", the development of the Wanjiang city has caught the attention of party central committee, the state council, which means that the eastern coastal area economic success becomes the key step to the Midwest radiation, means that the rise of important economic growth pole in Anhui province, also means that countries promoting the Midwest continues the domestic and foreign industry of the transfer of the experimental plot. At present, by the domestic and overseas scholars and elder people, study on the Wanjiang urban most still stays in the qualitative analysis, especially slim for quantitative research of the export-oriented economy. In order to make up for the defect, undertaking industrial transfer demonstration area for the city, combined with domestic and overseas scholars and elder people export-oriented economy in the development of the theory and research results, this paper chooses the seven index systems:foreign trade import and export measure, the actual use of foreign capital measure, foreign direct investment, measure of foreign contract projects and labor services measure, international tourism measure, high-tech products export measure and the comprehensive export-oriented economy to measure the development of export-oriented economy of wanjiang urban industrial transfer demonstration area. And focus on the influence of the development of export-oriented economy in anhui province to the the economy.First of all, by finding research materials, we look for main factors affecting economic development of wanjiang urban export-oriented in anhui province and the construction of the urban wanjiang export-oriented economic indicator system, and finally determined for the following seven indexes:measure of import and export (hereinafter referred to as the foreign trade dependence), the actual use of foreign capital measure (hereinafter referred to as foreign dependence), foreign direct investment, measure of foreign contract projects and labor services measure, international tourism measure (hereinafter referred to as tourism openness), the technology export measure and export-oriented economic comprehensive measure. Then we can make a calculation model.Second, this paper searches for index data of calculation of export-oriented economy in wanjiang urban industrial transfer demonstration in2000-2011. Use the measure computational model of each index to get the valued measure of each year. Through the longitudinal time, we compare changes and differences of a number line wanjiang city before and after the establishment of the development of export-oriented economy; Then the author extracts three typifies from the east mid and west regionals in the12provinces or economic group. Because of the difficulties in searching data, this article can only use2010data to calculate their export-oriented economy measure respectively. And use the transverse location to compare the differences of the export-oriented economy of wanjiang urban with the other provinces. Finally we can find that the indexes of the export-oriented economy in east China are better than the level of wanjiang city. However, the establishment of wanjiang city between the mid and west region will have a huge boost to the development of its export-oriented economic and each index is basically located in the Midwest. So can see wanjiang urban construction track is basic to China’s national conditions, which also plays a leading role in promoting the development of economic prosperity in the Midwest.Third, according to the research results of the scholars, this paper constructs six indexes for analyzing economy level in Anhui province. Respectively, they are GDP of Anhui province, the per capita GDP in Anhui province, Urban per capita disposable income in anhui province,the social total retail sales of consumer goods Anhui province, large industrial profits of Anhui province, the total revenue in Anhui province. And then in order to determine the influence of the development of Wanjiang urban export-oriented economic to the economy of Anhui province, this paper uses the MATLAB software to construct model of measure on the influence of six Wanjiang urban export-oriented on the economy in Anhui province.Then according to the specific quantitative model to analysis it, we can conclude that the influences to Anhui Province economy of the indexes in wanjiang export-oriented economy are from small to large. Respectively they are like this:foreign direct investment dependency, tourism, technology dependence, degree of foreign contract projects and labor services measure, foreign trade dependency, capital reliance. According to this conclusion, this paper will give out some suggestions on how to develop the economy of urban wanjiang export-oriented fast in the qualitative analysis of chapter6.Fourth, through the MATLAB fitting, use time series analysis to build the relationships between export-oriented economy and the time (year). This paper also forecasts the measure of the export-oriented economy in urban Wanjiang for the year of2012-2015,2020,2025,2030, and2050. Then based on the model of the influence of the development in wanjiang urban export-oriented economic to the economy of anhui province, make a prediction about the economy in anhui province for the next few years, and analyze the forecast results. Then we can find out that the short-term prediction the model gives out is quite ideal. It mainly meets the influence of the development of the economic in wanjiang urban export-oriented to anhui province in recent years.Finally, based on the above quantify results, this paper summarizes the positive influence of economy and negative influence of the export-oriented economic development of Wanjiang urban to Anhui province and gives the specific reason analysis. In the end, this paper also makes valuable suggestions on how to make better, faster, more effective development of the economy of Wanjiang urban extroverted economy.