Research On Monetary Policy Transmission Through The Bond Market In China Based On The SVAR

As an important financial market which spreads capital market and the money market, the bond market should have occupied the important position in the Central Bank monetary policy transmission. However the consistent preference to stock market rather than bond market in the past years caused relatively lagging development of bond market to some degree, as well as the difficulty and hindrance for Central Bank’s monetary policy operation and the transmission. Studying monetary policy transmission through the bond market in China scientifically and systematically has the strong practical significance regarding the opening monetary policy transmission channel and enhancing the transmission effect.This article begins with introduction of the theories of monetary policy tramsmission and outlines the theoretical framework of monetary policy transmission in the bond market. This topic divides it into two stages. The first is from monetary policy to the bond market,the other is from the bond market to the real economy. Upon the SVAR model of seven variables( CONS,CPI,I,M2,R,Y,ZQ),this paper takes empirical analysis of the two-stage, and reaches the conclution that the effect is not desirable. The first phase of the empirical research shows that the central bank adjusts the money supply and interest rates,effectively achieves the objectives of macroeconomic regulation and control.The tightening monetary policy, namely to raise interest rates restrains the bond market significantly. Second phase of the empirical research shows that China’s bond market wealth effect and investment effect is obvious,the bond market have some impact on growth and inflation, but the effect is less desirable.The topic systematically concludes obstacles. And propose corresponding countermeasure suggestion, thus provide analysis train of thoughts and reference for further reform、development, and provide policy-making support for our central bank to implement more highly effective monetary policy operation.