Research On The Influence Factors Of Rural Consumers During China’s Transition Periods

Since the16th party congress,"agriculture, countryside and farmers" issues appear many times in the form of No1Central Document of Party Central Committee, and become a hot concern topic to the public gradually. The PPC has clearly decided that improvement of the peasants’ income would be essential starting point and the foothold of "agriculture, countryside and farmers", as well as continually meet the farmers’ growing consumer demand and widely explore the rural consumption potential would be the key point of the whole national rural work. According to Central Document of PCC, all central and local governments have took a series of actions to promote the integration of urban and rural areas, dedicate to explore the rural consumption market and actively encourage social parties to participate in the new rural construction. As a result, the rural economy has been greatly developed and people achieved unprecedented happy lives. However, development has also suffered great challenges: financial crisis, ice storm damages and the expansion of income gap between different classes in urban and rural regions.This paper was based on precautionary savings theory of optimal inter-temporal consumption, considered the characteristics of transition periods and transformed the uncertainties that will affect rural residents’ consumption behavior to specific statical indicators, additionally analyzed the influential factors of the rural residents’ consumption from an empirical level. First of all, a descriptive statistical analysis was conducted towards rural residents’ consumption behavior which comprehensively introduce the present situation of China’s rural residents’ consumption and points out precautionary saving motives that existing in the rural residents. Secondly, an error correction model consumption function was set up to analyze the short-term and long-term impact of rural consumer toward income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty. At last, this paper established a panel data model in order to overcome the shortcomings of the time series analysis methods. Analysis results show that rural consumer behavior has a typical uncertainty characteristics in transition periods and the main factor that effects on our country’s rural consumer is income level. However, the influence of institutional rules and other uncertainties cannot be ignored, thus only manage to increase the income level of rural residents can increase consumption, expand the effective demand and solve dilemma of insufficient rural consumption.