Based On The Cash Flow Of The Listed Company Financial Crisis Warning Research

In recent years, a large number of listed companies have been specially treated for the poor management which caused a huge economic losses for the investors and unstable factors for the securities market. The stakeholders should establish a warning system to avoid or resolve the financial crisis model. How to choose the suitable index is the key problem for establishing a financial crisis warning model. The mainly index come from the balance sheet, profit sheet and cash flow sheet. With the exposure of a large number of accounting scandal, more companies have doubt the balance sheet. The cash flow indicators which can better reflect the real financial situation caused more and more attention for the scholars. The paper reflect the superiority of the financial warning system on the cash flow and construct the financial warning system with the linear method and nonlinear method. The linear method is the logistic regression model and the nonlinear method is the neural network model. And elaborate the value and effectiveness of the model aiming at protect the company in the complex market and provide the effective and timely decision in the minute to minute market.The paper has selected200functioned well companies and special treatment companies which are from multiple industries. The paper establishes the financial warning system based on the relevant literature and eliminate the linear effects with the factor analysis. The paper classify the financial performed well company and financial crisis company with logistic regression analysis model and neural network model and construct the model system and verify the model eventually.