The Research On The Analysis Of The Risk In Local Government Debts And It’s Early-warning

In recent years, with the deepening financial crisis, the European debt crisis, local government debt risk in China is gradually emerging, with the local government debt scale is continually expanding, local government debts overdue occurs, the local economic development rely too much on local government debt in the amount of news are also quite a few, if not the scientific and effective prevention and resolution, will cause local government debt crisis, which will cause a financial crisis and even social crisis. How to scientifically monitoring of local debt risk, accurate assessment of local government debt risk status, according to the local government debt risk status, and timely warning, and take corresponding prevention and countermeasures, this has become an important research topic which the current domestic scholars and the relevant government departments are favorite with.Based on the literature at home and abroad were reviewed, including support and opposition to government borrowing some of the views, then in detail introduced the local government debt related literature and Chinese scholars on the debt risk of local government studies. And then explains the meaning and classification of local government debt, mainly from Hana Polackova proposed classification criteria, from uncertainty aspects, government debt is divided into direct debt and debt, from a legal perspective, government debt is divided into explicit and implicit debt debt, a total of four classes, and they can form four kinds of combination classification. After that the article elaborated the meaning of risk of local government in China, introduces the current situation of local government debt risk, our country current local government debt scale is too large, repay overdue risks, management deficiencies, regulation is not in place, frequent violations and other characteristics, and then discusses in detail the causes of local government debt of China, there are system, legal system, management aspect, also has the achievement appraisal system and local economic development way; then introduced the local government debt risk early warning system building process, introduced the establishment of early warning system and the necessity of the establishment of early warning system, the principle of the establishment of early warning system and the goal of establishment of early warning system,early warning system can make local government comprehensive understanding of the status of local government debt risk,early warning system can analysis the local government debt risk, on the basis of the assessed results can help local government to formulate corresponding policies, then details the early warning indexes system composition, divided into internal monitoring index system, monitoring index system, external debt risk evaluation index system of three categories, in which the risk evaluation index system is the construction of local government debt risk early warning system. After the introduction, the article uses the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and fuzzy comprehensive judgment method in combination with" financial particle theory" to establish the local government debt risk early warning system, the local government debt risk grade was divided into5evaluation grades, are very safe, safe, a certain risk, moderate risk and high risk of local government debt, according to the comprehensive risk coefficient to determine the current local government debt risk early warning system to alert level.In the statistics of the2007-2011years Anhui province government debt situation, the empirical research,use of local government debt risk early warning system evaluated the Anhui province government debt risk and its early warning, using the AHP method with the help of Yaahp software is that Anhui province government debt risk assessment for" risk " to the conclusion, after the use of" financial particle theory" and" target decomposition method", combined with the risk mapping method to the Anhui province government debt risk warning, warning level for the" light division" conclusion; after the local government debt problems, this article from debt, use of the debt,pay debt three respects proceed with, given to prevent and resolve the debt risk of local government policies,local government debt to be transparent, dominance, should continue to deepen the tax sharing system reform deepening market economic system, open to issue local government bonds, shall establish and perfect the local government debt management system, to improve the current performance evaluation standard, the local government debt management into performance evaluation standards, finishing, rectification of local financing platform, the introduction of private capital into the local financing platform, the gradual and orderly reduction of local government debt stock; finally try to give the local government debt risk early warning system warning level corresponding policy, safety recommendations to active surveillance, prevention, light district to be alert to changes, control of the local government debt levels, in order to prevent, control as a supplement, dangerous to be strict control of local government debt scale growth, to take positive measures to repay the due, overdue debts, efforts to reduce the debt risk of local government in other risk.