Research On Plan Planning Of Local Government Debt Risk Early Warning

In recent years,the risk of local government debt in China has been on the rise,but there are still great differences between different provinces and regions.In view of scholars' research finding that the structural relationship of local government debt risk is non-linear,this paper analyzes the local government debt risk of each province from different perspectives by using the threshold model and the Markov region transformation model,and gives a comprehensive early warning of the provincial debt risk.This paper takes our country's 31 provinces as the research object,selects 7 risk identification indexes,synthesizes the comprehensive evaluation value of local government debt risk by entropy value method-TOPSIS method,and divides the debt risk state of each province into two categories,high risk state and safety state,by k-means clustering method.The warning model constructed in this paper has a prediction accuracy of 93.33% for the high-risk status of provinces in the next year and an overall prediction accuracy of 77.42% for provinces' debt risk status in the future,with an ideal warning effect.The study found that,regionally,the risk of local government debt in the eastern region was significantly lower than that in the central and western regions and the whole nation.In 2016 and 2017,the risk of government debt in 15 provinces including Hebei,Hunan,Henan and Shanxi was in a high risk state for two consecutive years,which should be paid special attention to.Urbanization rate is the core factor affecting the risk of government debt.Central and western provinces should strictly control the process of urbanization,and make the fixed-asset investment and debt to promote urbanization transparent and within the fiscal tolerable range.The study of this paper can provide some help for local governments to take targeted measures to prevent and resolve debt risks.