The Research Of Chinese Steel Industry’s Fluctuation

China is in a stage of rapid development of the industrialization and urbanization process, the Steel Industry as a heavy industry and basic materials industry, directly affects the stable operation of the national economy. However, in recent years, there are many problems happened in Chinese Steel Industry, the first problem is our country’s Steel Industry excess capacity seriously; Secondly, the Steel Industry’s production costs have been climbing, plus transportation industry, equipment manufacturing industry, real estate industry and other major steel downstream industries demand for steel products structure was greatly changed, making China’s Steel Industry depends on the low-end of the mass production steel products to get profit method won’t work, so we need to analyze the current operational status of the steel industry to explore the future direction of the Steel Industry.This paper from the production, demand, import and export of the Steel Industry to analysis the Steel Industry currently runs trend firstly and get a conclusion that the Steel Industry’s condition was very bad in recent years, and get a detailed analysis of the reasons leading to this phenomenon; On the basis of qualitative analysis, screening of a number of important industries that impact the steel enterprise benefit for VAR analysis, From the perspective of positivism ascertain transportation industry, equipment manufacturing, real estate industry to the steel industry have larger effects of impact and contribution rate; Chinese Steel Industry want to be healthy development must actively change the existing product structure of Chinese Steel Industry and improve the proportion of the production of high-end steel products; To judgment the future trend of steel exogenous variables, we using the methods of cross correlation to filter out effectively reflect the operation condition of economic indicators to the steel industry from these important industries, constructing the Steel Industry’s consistent, leading and lagging composite index, and through the principal component method to verify the validity of these three composite index, and then contact the China’s macroeconomic performance to analyze the operation of Chinese Steel Industry11years from2001to2011and get a conclusion that the coincident composite index of macroeconomic leading the coincident composite index of the steel industry, according to this feature and contact the trend of the leading composite index of the steel industry, we can easily get to a conclusion that the steel industry will continue to maintain a market downturn in the coming period; Final analysis the coincident composite index of the steel industry and the Steel plates on the stock market and get a conclusion that the steel plates on the stock market is the Steel Industry’s barometer.