Study On The Trend And Influence Factors Of RMB’s Exchange Rate RRMB/AUD For Example

In recent years, the international financial field has a very profound changes, the worldeconomy has presented the trend of globalization. Exchange rate as a bridge connected acountry to other countries plays a more and more important role in the economic transactionactivities. Exchange rate is the integrated embodiment of the country’s stage of development,the development level and the competitiveness. The evolution process of the exchange rate isclosely related with the country’s economic strength, scientific progress level and theindustrial structure adjustment. Therefore, it has an important meaning of the study of theRMB’s exchange rate movements and its influence factors.This paper firstly reviews the evolution of the RMB exchange rate system in China, andthen shows that China’s status of development of the RMB exchange rate using the RMBagainst the AUD. Secondly，from traditional theory and modern development theory ofexchange rate decision，we analyzed influence of the main basic factors of RMB exchangerate. The author built a multiple regression model in the view of the econometric analysis,using two stages the least square method to analyze the relationship between the exchangerate influence factors. This model showed the GDP, inflation rate, carry, internationalpayments and the foreign exchange reserves to the influence of the RMB exchange rate andthe relationship. The empirical study found that:First, through the co-integration test, China’s exchange rate has a long-term stableequilibrium with the level of economic development, trade openness, the foreign exchangereserves, the interest spread, inflation rate and exchange rate lag. That is, in the above eachvariable existed mutual connection relationship.Second, in the relationship of the foreign exchange reserves and a nominal exchange rateof RMB, Chinese foreign exchange will keep growing momentum in a short term and theinfluence of the RMB exchange rate is significant. But in the long run, growth is limited.Therefore, in control of foreign exchange reserves rapid growth at the same time, the key point is to learn how to management in foreign exchange reserves, improve operationefficiency of the foreign exchange reserves, reduce labor costs and maximizing the efficiencyof the foreign exchange reserves held, and to reduce the adverse effect of the economic andrational selection of foreign exchange reserve currency and asset combination, so foreignexchange reserves will play the optimal utility.Third, the interest rate spreads between China and Australia, the import and exportdifference and inflation rate has weak correlation with the RMB exchange rate fluctuation. Onthe one hand, AUD, the exchange rate of the small and medium-sized economies, by China’seconomic effect factors of the performance is not very obvious; On the other hand, China’seconomic system also have anything that are not perfect, so China’s economic system needs tobe further development and improvement, as soon as possible to integrate with the worldmarket.The mainly innovation point in this paper is that adopting the exchange rate of RMB ofAustralia a time sequence, thus to study some basic factors variables and the relationship withthe RMB exchange rate. Researching on the exchange rate of RMB is significant for ourcountry and some small economies economic development analysis. At the same time, thispaper analyzed the influence factors of the market with the RMB exchange rate by using twostages the least square method.