| Shipping is one of the most important ways in logistics. Shipping volume is about morethan2/3of the total volume of international trade. With the process of economic globalizationand national industrial restructuring, China has become one of the most important shipping inthe world. The shipping industry is a high risk industry, because of the high initial investment,long payback period, and price fluctuation. Especially the BDI shipping price fluctuationduring the recent years, affected the shipping enterprises income levels and investmentdecisions. Many companies have to pay for their wrong decision. In this case, the study onshipping enterprises should take what kind of logistics and operational strategies to minimizethe risk of the price fluctuation, and enhance the competitiveness of shipping enterprises,making the companies to have a smooth, sustainable business will have realistic and positivesense.This paper mainly studied the logistics management strategic based on shipping pricefluctuations for the shipping companies’ strategic decision-making needs. The main contentsare as follows:Firstly, the correlation analysis of the shipping price and the shipping companies’operational performance. After analyzed the characters of shipping market, it discussed thesensitivity of the impact of business operation performance under fuel price and freight ratefluctuation. And it studied the correlation between shipping price and business operationperformance.Secondly, the shipping price volatility trends and patterns. It builds an ARIMA model toforecast the short-term movements of BDI index and CCFI index, and gets better predictionresults. And then, use BP filter method to decompose a cycle trend from the initial data seriesto verify the predication that the shipping market is cyclical thesis.Thirdly, established a investment decision-making model under shipping pricefluctuations based on real option theory.Fourthly, proposed some advices about diversification, optimize the logistics process, thedevelopment of long-term partners and FFA investment to stabilize the risk of shipping pricefluctuation combined with the actual situation of the Guangdong Province Navigation Co Ltd. |
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