The Study On Courses Of Export Instability In China

Since reform and open, China’s foreign trade has developed rapidly. The promoted effect of foreign trade to the economy is significant. However, trade policy and pattern of our country result in high ratio of dependence on foreign trade and bring vulnerable and unsteady foreign trade.In view of the huge effect of the international trade to China’s economy, it is meaningful to study on the reason why export fluctuates sharply for both decreasing the instability and avoiding negative effect of this instability to the economy. Commodity and market structure are always thought as the main reasons of the export fluctuation and also the focus of relative study. But for our country, the study on this subject should be on the basis of both export and import, as foreign trade highly relies on processing trade and import also affects export distinctly. This paper begins with import and export, investigates the influence of both the commodity structure, market structure of import and export to the export instability and aims to provide valuable suggestions to optimizes trade structure and decrease instability.The framework of this paper is as follows:Part I introduces the background and study significance of this paper, besides, gives details about study method, framework, innovative and weak points.Part II is literature review. It includes two directions:the reason analysis and result analysis of export instability, which is the basis of the author’s study.Part III is the theoretical analysis of export instability. This part, the theoretical basis, provides the main influent factors to export instability. First, it introduces the definition of export instability and main sources bring about instability. The fluctuation of export results from the fluctuation of international market demand and price, while the commodity and market structure are the main reasons for demand and price fluctuation. Second, it gives several important reasons for China’s export instability. This paper provides a profile of the commodity and market structure of import and export. Besides, it measures the degree of commodity and market concentration using different indexes, on which basis the author analyses the current condition and gets the point that our country has high degree of market and commodity concentration in import and export.Part IV is empirical analysis. This part provides the indexes measuring export instability. The author measures the export instability from1994to2010and gives relative analysis. Finally, it builds regression model to investigate whether commodity and market concentration degree of import and export will influence the export instability or not.Part V are conclusions and suggestions. On the basis of concluding PartIV and V, author thinks that the main factors influencing export instability consist of export commodity structure, export market structure and import commodity structure. Policy suggestions are from the perspective of market diversifying, commodity structure adjusting and investment attracting, hopefully to decrease export instability and promote economy to develop smoothly.