Influences And Countermeasures Of The International Financial Crisis On The Export Trade Of Shandong Province

Since the1980s, the world has experienced a series of financial crises, for example:the international balance of payments crisis and financial crisis of Latin American countries in1982, Japanese bad debt crisis in1990, Mexican financial crisis in1994, Asian financial crisis in1997, Russian financial crisis and currency crisis in1998, U.S. IT bubble crisis in2000, Argentina’s financial crisis in2001, etc. This series of financial crisis reduced the liquidity of the currency in the economy, weakened the level of financial development, and had a significant impact on international trade. This international financial crisis is different from the causes and nature of the above crisis, which is greater impact, reaching a wider and has more serious consequences.The international financial crisis first began from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in2007, evolved into a global financial crisis in2008, triggered the debt crisis in Europe in2009, in the end caused the U.S. debt crisis and U.S. debt crisis after crisis in2011.The unexpected is that the financial system, whose "firewall" system did not effectively prevent the crisis from spreading to the real economy. The international financial crisis quickly spread to the world’s major economies in its own unique infectious and destructive, in the consequence:severe impact on the world economy, the world economy into recession, a sharp contraction of world trade, global increase in unemployment, the rise of trade protectionism.Financial crisis has brought unprecedented challenges to the Chinese economic province in eastern Shandong exports. In recent years, due to strong foreign demand, exports become one of the "Troika" strong to boost China’s economic development. However, during the financial crisis, the adverse external trade environment is undoubtedly a huge blow to export trade in Shandong Province, such as:export growth rate dropped, substantial reduction in foreign trade surplus, monthly exports of negative growth, changes in the structure of the main export commodities, export enterprises setback serious, the scale of atrophy or discontinued, decrease in profits of trade.This paper first introduces the course of development of export trade in Shandong Province, and then analyzes the six ways that the international financial crisis affected Shandong exports, including:demand impact, expected impact, exchange rate impact, price impact, credit impact, and foreign trade policy impact. Based in Shandong Province export trade data, more in depth analysis of the impact of the development of Shandong Province’s foreign trade before and after the financial crisis from multi-angle, including:the scale of export trade, the export commodity structure, the export trade patterns, the export trade market structure.In this paper, draw on the basis of related literature, through detailed analysis of the monthly data of the Shandong top four export target countries and regions from2007to September2011, using econometric methods such as the stationary test and Granger causality test, empirical study of the relationship between Shandong Province exports to four country(the United States, European Union, Japan and South Korea), per capita GDP of these countries, the total stock market value, the unemployment rate and the RMB effective exchange rate index. It is further confirmed that the international financial crisis had a significant impact on the export trade of Shandong Province. At last, according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results of the study, some suggestions and countermeasures from both the government and enterprises on the foreign trade of Shandong Province to prevent and respond to the financial crisis and post-crisis period is how to develop export trade are made.