Analysis Of Investor Behaviour Diffusion Based On The Kinetics Model

With the rise of behavioral economics, and gradually increase of investor behavior research, psychology is being gradually shown in the study of investment process."Completely rational person" hypothesis under strict constraints has been replaced by "limited rationality". Gradually, economists have begun to study the diffusion of investment behavior as a process, reacting the mechanism and law for investment behaviour diffusion more dynamically, systematically and comprehensively.Here, I defined the investment process as:the diffusion process from individual investments to collective investments. Because factors like investment environment and so on for capital market are uncertainty and unpredictability, and at the same time, investors behaviour diffusion are decided both by decision-making ability of investment individual and effect from other investment individual, investor behavior also spreads uncertainly. This paper used part research results existing for investment behaviour diffusion, assuming that investors in the behaviour diffusion process are divided into two groups:part of pioneer investor will make investment behaviour based on its own judgment. There will also be some investors imitating others behaviour because of limited information, confidence increase demand and other factors, gathering as investors groups, creating high cohesion and dispersion forces, and thereby accelerating the velocity of investment behavior diffusion.Diffusion of behaviour system evolves over time. Therefore, the system research must accords with its evolution reasons, characteristics and mechanism. The investment behavior diffusion has certain general character, also has its individuality. In general, individual investment behaviour will be affected by the other groups or individual investment behaviour, therefore, an effective interpersonal relationship network for investment behavior diffusion is very important. Effect from interpersonal relationship for the investment behavior diffusion is mainly embodied in the effect for human idea and selection and information and resources the behavioral decision depends on. On the foundation of investment behaviour character and the internal cause research, current models for investment behaviour diffusion generally use differential equations to express the dynamics system of investment behavior diffusion, and the time and attributes stated tend to be continuous. Or express it by the way of computer simulation, simulating spatial interaction of various elements, and what stated is discrete.Interaction exists among investment individuals. The individual behaviour is influenced by other individual behaviour’s external influence. And individual will also influence the behavior of other individual consciously or unconsciously.This paper employs dynamic analysis method, using a" top-down" research method, and basing on extant behaviour diffusion model and investors behavior diffusion theory. This paper builds an investment system, using the evolutionary game model,descriping the dynamic evolution process of investors spontaneously adopt some investment behaviour and imitatly adopt investment behaviour in an investment system. And on the hypothesis of these two kinds’investors, I established the structure of a diffusion system using differential equations, to study dynamics change rules of a system mathematically under different parameter changes for industry investment behaviour. Combining examples, in this paper I select investors behavior diffusion process for specific industry to do empirical analysis test, and to explore relevant economics revenues.Investment capacity and character of investment individual, as the investment main body, decides the creation of investment behaviour essentially. As the market regulatory, government affects the investment situation by policy.At the same time, free competition of the capital market and other factors can not be ignored. Therefore, we should coordinate various market factors to reduce intense influence from negative characteristics of investment diffusion on the capital market, to protect the legitimate rights of investors’interests.