| In this paper, we mainly focus on the adaptive management decision of Agro-forestsystem in Shandong province. On the base of some relate knowledge such as ForestryManagement and Operation theory, and with the help of MATLAB software, we studied anddiscussed the problem that how to make an adaptive decision of Agro-forest system underprice risk. The method and theory we mainly used in the model was Real option, StochasticDynamic program, as well as, the Monte Carlo simulation. Under these models, this paperdiscussed the optimal starting investment time of underwood economy on the first decisionpoint, moreover, under price risk, we also discussed how to make an adaptive managementdecision, namely, how to decide the right time to stop the system. Finally, we took Jiaxiangcountry and Qihe country in Shandong province as example sits to test the model, numeralresults showed that the model and decision method was scientific and reasonable.The main research contents and results were summarized as follows:1. The agro-forest system in this paper was composed by107-fast growing and high yieldpoplar forest and the underwood product was button mushroom, which could be planted onlywhen the canopy of forest reached70%; thus, we took it as a waiting option. With the RealOption theory, we discussed the optimal investment time of button mushroom on the firstdecision point, which mainly refer to the years that the canopy of forest had reached70%. Inorder to take the price risk into considerate, under the help of Monte Carlo simulation model,we simulated2000sets data based on Real Option theory and got the threshold value ofbutton mushroom price; in other words, the minimum value of price to start investing it on theavailable years.2. With reference to the adaptive management decision model, we simulated the price ofpoplar and button mushroom with MATLAB program based on its history distribution, andobtained the distribution function; then calculated the distribution rate in different price range.To testify the effects of price risk on the total benefits of agro-forest, people calculated thevalue under both cases, and the results showed that: when we took the price risk and uncertaininto considerate, the total benefits could be improved by10%-15%. Therefore, it wasnecessary to consider the price risk into management decision.3. With Stochastic Dynamic program, built the decision model of the whole agro-forestsystem under price risk and uncertain of both timber and button mushroom. Through MATABprogram, we could obtain the solutions of the model. As a result, people could get the specificdecision according to the value of solutions. In turn, we also had the optimal timber price of different harvest year. Take the price of7th year as an example, the value was705yuan, that is:when the current price of timber is higher than705, people whose risk attitude is neutral canharvest and end the system; on the contrary, people should wait.4. In order to study the mutual-effect of forest and button mushroom, we calculate the specificvalue of reservation price of timber and button mushroom on two cases: one is in pure forestand button mushroom management, the other is in agro-forest system. The results show that:with underwood planting, the reservation price of timber will be higher than in pure forest,while the reservation price of underwood planted products will be lower than pure planting onthe ground. This is mainly because the poplar can offer the right environment for the buttonmushroom and the existence of button mushroom can promote the growth of poplar.In summary, in this paper, we mainly study and discuss the adaptive management decisionof agro-forest, based on the Real Option and Stochastic Dynamic Program to build thedecision model and test it in agro-forest which is composed by the poplar fast-growing andhigh-yield forest and button mushroom. With the test, the model built in this paper isreasonable and scientific, as well as, it can offer some theory base and technical support. |
PDF Full Text Request