| Since the reform and opening up, China’s income distribution pattern has changed enormously, the people’s income increased rapidly in the proportion of national income, which makes people’s consumption and savings behavior impact of the China’s economic development. By the end of2007, the balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province reached1.301492trillion yuan, compared to9.953billion yuan at the end of1985, increasing of129.76times. This means that since1985, Jiangsu rural household savings deposits increased25.31percent at an average annual, while the annual growth rate of GDP over the same period was18.55%.Taking into account population changes of these years, in order to balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents per capita measured, the per capita savings deposits of urban and rural residents the balance of growth rate is also much higher than the per capita GDP growth rate. Of urban and rural household savings to GDP, accounting for the balance of view, in1985the rate was only15.27%, but by the end of2007, this indicator increased to50.56%. Urban and rural residents in Jiangsu high savings and savings deposits of high growth is how to formed? What are determinant? How was the effects of economic development? How to properly treat this problem? These are present in front of us has great practical significant issue which deserves thorough study.To this end, this paper by drawing on the savings of Western theories, respectively, urban residents and rural residents in Jiangsu savings as the research object, by analyzing the characteristics of the status and studying the household savings "double high" phenomenon and the resulting effect; and then using empirical analysis method, establishmenting the regression model of household savings and the associating factors, studys of the impact of each factor in-depth; and finally put forward policy recommendations as a reasonable solution to people’s savings "double high". This focus on urban and rural residents factors affecting savings in Jiangsu Province, a study is divided into five parts.The first part of the Introduction. Briefly describes the background, research significance, research methodology and structural arrangements of this article.The second part of the literature review. Through extensive reading related literature, a comprehensive summing up research reveals and analysis of the current academic circles at home and abroad on this issue, the research results and research level.The third part of the urban and rural residents in Jiangsu savings profile. In this section, the article first describes the balance of savings deposits changes of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu, such as the size of deposits, an increase of speed. Then, sub-urban residents and rural household savings deposits, savings deposits, for descriptive statistics. On this basis, further analysis of the macroeconomic effects of high savings.The forth part is about Jiangsu influencing factors of urban and rural household savings empirical analysis. In the preceding sections, this chapter turns to the main body of this research, namely, factors affecting household savings. That part of the draw on the savings of the Western theory of urban residents with savings savings and the actual situation of the rural population, respectively, setting up savings for urban residents and rural household savings factors Factors Influencing Their analytical framework, using JOHANSEN co-integration analysis, GRANGER causality test and impulse response analysis for quantitative analysis of urban residents reached the rural household savings savings and the impact of factors, and compared the urban residents and rural household savings savings factors similarities and differences.Finally, conclusions and policy recommendations. About full-text research findings and make policy recommendations.Main conclusions of this paper is as follows:1.Affecting the income level of savings deposits of urban residents is in the first factor, increase the income levels of urban residents and rural residents in Jiangsu is an important role in promoting savings.Empirical analysis shows that income levels affect the savings deposits of urban residents in the first factor, the higher the income level, household savings is also a corresponding higher positive correlation between the income and household savings, which in line with the general theory. Savings of urban residents cointegration equation shows that when the income of urban residents increased by1%, the savings will increase the amount of0.588709%. Cointegration of rural household savings equation shows that when the income of rural residents increased by1%, the savings will increase the amount of0.314374%. With the economic development of Jiangsu Province, will continue to increase in income, if other things being equal, then there will be a corresponding savings in Jiangsu growth.2.Consumer spending is an important factor affecting urban and rural residents in Jiangsu savings deposits, household consumption expenditure of rural residents in Jiangsu also has a significant role in savings between the two negative correlation.Empirical analysis shows that household consumption expenditure savings deposits of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu affect another important factor. Negative correlation between the household consumption expenditure savings, with the increase in household consumption, household savings amount would be a corresponding reduction. Cointegration of urban household savings equation shows that consumer spending of urban residents increased by1%, its household savings will reduce the amount of0.210173%. Cointegration of rural household savings equation shows that consumption expenditure of rural residents increased by1%, its household savings will reduce the amount of0.191432%.3.Rising interest rates will lead to savings, nominal interest rates and household savings positive correlation exists between two variable.This is consistent between our normal sense and economic sense, indicating that interest rates rising will lead to an increasing of saving. Urban residents savings cointegration equation shows that for every1%increase in interest rates, urban residents will rise0.117683%savings. Cointegration of rural household savings equation shows that for every1%increase in interest rates for rural residents will rise0.155885%savings.4.The investment channels for narrow urban residents in Jiangsu is an important reason for high savings, the amount of increase in holdings of securities will result in a decline in the amount of household savings deposits, there is negative between the cointegration relationship.Savings of urban residents cointegration analysis shows that the amount of increase in holdings of securities will result in a decline in the amount of household savings deposits. Cointegration equation shows that the amount of each of the securities held by urban residents increased by1%, its residents will be reduced by0.036906%savings. Therefore, when the stock market downturn, stock returns decrease when the savings will be increased; When the stock market rising stock returns increase when the savings will be reduced. Further extended to the bonds, funds and other investment channels will appear when these investment market downturn, a substantial increase in household savings situation. This shows that when other investment channels open for the time, residents will be their savings into investment, rather than on bank savings deposits in the form of preserving and increasing the value of such a decline in savings deposits of residents; when the various investment channels When poor, residents will be placed on the stock market, bonds and funds and other investment channels for the transfer of funds to the bank, so bank deposits will increase.5.Rural dependency factor is a significant factor affecting the rural population to save in the amount of household savings in rural areas, rural dependency exists a negative relationship between two variable.Rural savings cointegration analysis shows that the rise in dependency coefficient will lead to a decline in the amount of household savings deposits. Cointegration equation shows that for every1%increase in dependency coefficient, its household savings will be reduced by the amount of0.027138%.6.The level of price affects the rural household savings deposits, rural household savings amount and price levels exists the negative relationship, price levels will lead to reduction of rural household savings deposits.Rural savings cointegration analysis shows that the amount of household savings in rural areas and the price level, the negative between the cointegration relationship, prices increased by1%for every rural household savings deposits will fall0.017078%. |
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