The Research On China’s Underwriting Cycle

Underwriting cycle is an intrinsic characteristic of Property and Casualtyinsurance industry， it affects every aspect of Property and Casualty insuranceindustry’s operating. There is an evidence stated that the volatility of underwritingcycle is one of the main three operating risk that Property and Casualty insuranceindustry faced. The thesis tries to make research on the P／C insurance based on thedata that can be available since the recovery of the P／C insurance in China in early1980’s．The purpose of the thesis is to discuss the questions about the existence ofunderwriting cycle in China. And according to underwriting cycle， in order tominimize the risk of underwriting cycle’s volatility,try to qualitatively andquantitatively analyze the effect factors of underwriting cycle. Base on these analysisthis paper give some policy proposal to strengthen the management of underwritingcycle.Based off this subject，the thesis mainly includes three sections．Firstly，the thesissummarize the methods used to analyze the underwriting cycle. Based on my country’sactual situation, using two order auto regression with structural changes and CF filtermethod to do some empirical analyses. Secondly，after the approvement of theexistence of the U／W cycle，the thesis analyze all kinds of effect factor existing in theoperating of P／C insurance and use co-movement method to do quantitativeanalysis. Thirdly, the thesis analyzes the risk of U／W cycle’s volatility, aftercomprehensive consideration of the effect factors and the risk, the thesis give policySuggestions on the management of U/W cycle.