Research On The Measuring And Influencing Factors Of Liability Insurance Underwriting Cycle

Liability insurance is an important kind of modern insurance whose insurance object is the interest of the third-party and function is to accommodate funds and avoid risks, and it can also play a positive role in the society’s risk sharing harmony and stability. So it is very important to complete the social risk sharing system and strengthen society management and stability. What’s more, as to the research of the underwriting cycle, it starts at80’s of21st century, whose typical performance is the cyclical wave of the insurance profit ratio and price, and according to the foreign and domestic related researches, the underwriting cycle exists generally.The purpose of the thesis is to reveal the cyclicity and working mechanism of the liability insurance, in order to make the insurance industry and supervision department grasp its development better and supervise the liability insurance market counter-cyclically.This thesis takes the underwriting cycle as the research object, and contains4main parts as follows,Firstly, the related researches of this field are combed, and the-basic theory and content of the liability insurance and underwriting cycle is systemized and introduced as the theoretical basis of the following research.Secondly, the writer introduces and compares the developing condition of the liability insurance market all over the world and then discusses the liability insurance crisis emphatically from different aspects, such as the performance and the causes. The research indicate that the reason of the crisis is essentially the cyclical changes of the insurance market, and what pushes it is the specific tort liability system US owns.Thirdly, by the introducing and comparing the cycle measuring methods, the thesis comes out that the spectral density analysis. method is more scientific and accurate on reflecting the underwriting cycle phenomenon and measures the length of the Chinese liability insurance cycle with it. The result shows that Chinese liability insurance market has a7-year main cycle length and3.5-year,1-year secondary cycle length, and what’s more, the short-term fluctuation is very frequent.Finally, on the basis of the above research, the thesis makes a realistic analysis about the influencing factors of China’s liability insurance underwriting cycle, and then builds a5-variable VAR model, decomposes the model’s variance and makes the impulse response figures to discuss the strength and influencing mechanism of each variable. The result shows that the free interest rate influences liability insurance underwriting cycle the most, mainly through the discounting effect and investing effect, the compensation amount, asset amount of property insurance company and level of the market competition are also important influencing factors to the underwriting cycle.The research’s focus and innovative points includes3main parts:1, this research discusses the liability insurance crisis relatively deeply, which is rare in domestic studies;2, this research popularizes the spectral density analysis method and applies it in the measuring of China’s liability insurance underwriting cycle;3, on the basis of the former scholars’researches, the author adds the property insurance company’s asset amount factor and market competition level factor into the empirical research, making the study more comprehensive.