| The development and maturation of the real estate market is a certain stage to go through the process of a country’s economy, it also represents a country’s level of economic development. The real estate market has been considerably developed, and has been identified to become the pillar industry of China’s national economy, since1998. However the real estate prices are like a roller coaster. The real estate prices rose rapidly from2004to2007, but declined in2008. After2008, a series of central bank measures to boost the real estate market was intended to reduce the impact of price fluctuations in the economy, to the contrary, the prices rose again.Real estate prices as an important asset prices, the macroeconomic impact should not be overlooked. For our current price volatility phenomenon, the effective means of macroeconomic control are very important for real estate. The main financial instruments of control real estate market is monetary policy, this paper groups the basic form of the monetary policy control into two kinds:one kind is quantity-oriented monetary policy, which in order to regulate the quality of loans; the other kind is price-based monetary policy, mainly referring to the interest rate policy, regulation and control of the total demand and supply for money. This paper put these two currencies control policy for the main object of study, and make full use of a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. On the one hand, this paper analyze the intuitive effects of monetary policy over the years, on the other hand, establish the VAR (vector auto-regression model) model of prices and quantity of the monetary policy variable, the price of the monetary policy variable and the price of land, from an empirical point of view to explore the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy tools for the regulation of real estate prices.The main conclusions obtained in this paper are as follow:firstly, The monetary policy plays the role of regulation and control of real estate prices. In contrast, regulation of the quantity-oriented monetary policy is obvious, but regulation of the price-based monetary policy is not obvious; secondly, The control effect of monetary policy is different in many regions, Second and third tier cities in China, monetary policy is overheating, and serious speculation in the real estate market regulation is better, while in some individual first-tier cities, the commercial housing market is operating normally and the commercial housing price is stable, the control effect of monetary policy is not so obvious; third, there is obvious time delay problem in the control effect of monetary policy, time delay is shorter in the economically developed cities than it is in some economically less developed areas; finally, focus on the use of monetary policy with other policy instruments, to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market. |
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