The Analysis Of Commercial Bank Systemic Risk

Finance is the core of modern economy and the banking industry is the core ofmodern finance, especially in China, the banking industry to occupy a very importantrole in economic development, therefore, the healthy steady development of thebanking sector is an important part of the current economic development. Since theeighties of the last century, the economic crisis, compared with previous crises,whether it affected the scope or the extent of losses are greatly increased, this isbecause with the economic development, the financial sector in a country’s positiongetting higher and higher, if there are problems, it is easy to cause a chain reaction ofother economies; the other hand, economic globalization has made closer ties betweenthe countries, if a country’s crisis, with economic ties with other countries is difficultto avoid small-scale crisis will gradually spread to a wider range.The global economic crisis caused by U.S. subprime mortgage crisis countriesstarting to focus on systemic risk. Systemic risk refers to a country’s financial system,the possibility of intense turbulence caused by the economic cycle, changes in thestate’s macroeconomic policies, external financial shocks, and other risk factors, thisrisk has strong occult, accumulation and infectious the international financial systemand the global real economy will have a tremendous negative external effects, andsystemic risk can not be general risk management instruments to counteract orweaken each other, systemic risk can only be to prevent its accumulation and even theoutbreak, but it can not be simply eliminated. A wide range of systemic risk,infectious, hidden features, if not more to prevent the outbreak on the nationaleconomy caused by the loss is difficult to predict.The main purpose of this paper is to establish the evaluation index system of thesystemic risks of commercial banks in China.Lau Chi-keung (1999,2000) earlierintroduced the definition of the financial crisis, foreign financial crisis, warning, andto design a financial crisis early warning indicator system. Tang Xu (2002) earlywarning indicators, model, institutional arrangements and management informationsystems aspects of research, to establish the framework of the financial crisis earlywarning system in China. Rao hoon dry (2008) GARCH conditions VaR method ofanalysis of financial risks in China, then to complete the financial risk early warningsystem through the establishment of early warning signal indicator. Stock Ma Hui(2009) Markov district system transfer model of our financial system’s currency crisis,banking crisis and asset bubble crisis early warning system to obtain a betterprediction. I learn from our predecessors have done the research, various evaluationmethods, and ultimately select the economic subsystem, bank subsystem, the balanceof payments subsystem,24evaluation of the four subsystems of the stock marketsubsystem, using principal component analysis, the establishment of China’s bankingsystemic risk evaluation index system, China’s banking industry in the post-crisissystemic risks in the empirical analysis, verification and selected the appropriate evaluation, the model results have strong explanatory power.This article draw on the experience of some developed countries in bankingsupervision, combined with the requirements of Basel II, proposed to strengthen themacro-prudential supervision of banks. Financial crisis in the United States in2008profoundly reminds us that too much focus on the bank micro-prudential supervisionwill enable us to not see the systemic nature of the risk, you can not measure the riskscale and the impact of You want to macro-prudential and micro-prudentialcombination of up to maintain the stability of the banking sector.