Study On The Procurement Strategies Of Crude Oil Import In China

Since the reform and opening up, China’s demand for crude oil is graduallyrising with the rapid development of economy. China has surpassed Japan tobecome the second largest crude oil consuming and importing countries after theUnited States. Due to lots of international and domestic factors, on the one hand,for the volatility of crude oil prices and the difficulty of predicting it, China’senterprises are facing huge risk loss; on the other hand, because of the political riskturmoil of suppliers of crude oil, China’s crude oil supply security is threatened.Combined with China’s crude oil import status, this paper makes some discussionson these two aspects, in order to make more reasonable crude oil procurementstrategies.This paper firstly summarized the domestic and international’s researches ofcrude oil procurement strategies and the CVaR theory, on this basis, comparedChina’s import status with other major crude oil importing countries’, such as theUnited States, and then found the problems of China’s crude oil import; Secondly,based on China’s crude oil import status, and from the perspective of supplysecurity, this paper established a composite index to measure the risk of crude oilimport, and used it to compare several procurement strategies of improving China’scrude oil import, the results show that China should gradually reduce its crude oilin the Middle East and priority import crude oil from the Asia-Pacific region;Lastly, considering the diversification of import, political risk, and otherconstraints, this paper constructed a stochastic programming model of multi-stagecrude oil import decisions with the combining of procurement cost and potentialloss for the target and the use of CVaR theory measuring the potential loss, andconducted a three-stage empirical analysis, the results show that Chineseenterprises should increase inventory capacities and crude oil reserves to reducecosts and losses, and dynamically import crude oil. The results of this paper, on theone hand, expand the theoretical study of the petroleum import strategies; on theother hand, have certain guiding significance for some enterprises to improve andoptimize the petroleum import strategies.