The Appreciation Of The Renminbi Under Expected Asset Price Volatility Analysis In Our Country

In2005, China implemented exchange rate system reform, since then theRMB has stepped into the channel of rapid appreciation. The continuingappreciation of the RMB caused strong appreciation phenomenon, a largenumber of “hot money” betting on the appreciation of RMB inflows into China’sstock market, property market, pushing up asset prices, at the same time, hasbrought great risk to our country’s economy. Based on the analysis of thecause of RMB appreciation, the paper quantified the RMB appreciation, andanalyzed the transmission mechanism of asset prices of the RMB appreciation.Then we selected the historical data before and after the "exchange reform”,empirically analyzed the effect of the RMB appreciation on Chinese stock price,real estate prices. The empirical results showed that the RMB appreciation hadpositive relevant relationship with asset prices, whether before "exchangereform” or after, but more closely after the "exchange reform”. There is along-term equilibrium relationship between RMB appreciation and asset prices,after the "exchange reform”, the RMB appreciation expectations, stock pricesand real estate prices all went up significantly. But the influence degree ofRMB appreciation to all the stock prices and the areas of the real estate priceswere different, there is industry heterogeneity in the stock prices, there is alsoregional heterogeneity in the real estate prices.Not only was there a long-termstatic relationship between the RMB appreciation and asset prices, but alsodynamic effect in the short term. On this basis, this paper puts forward that theRMB exchange rate should be stable, the expected appreciation should be cutover, the asset price should be guided to rational way, the monetary policyindependence should be kept.