An Empirical Analysis Of The Interactive Relationship Between House Prices And Stock Prices

The real estate market and the stock market is the main investment channels forresidents. And both play a decisive role in the capital market. In view of the currentsituation that the house price is very high and the shares price fluctuates frequently inrecent years. And the paper chooses real estate sales price index、the Shanghaicomposite index and real estate sector indices three characteristics. The paper uses ourcountry in July2008to February2014between the three indicators of monthly data assample data. Firstly the paper chooses time series models to forecast short-term prices;Secondly use multivariate time series of Johnson co integration model of the real estatemarket and the stock market to establish the mathematical model for long termrelationship; The last estimate parameters of the model by VAR method. According tothe model to analysis the real estate market and the mutual restriction relation of thestock market.And we find that there are obvious differences between short-term andlong-term interactive relationship; Specification in the stock market; Decision makingwise investment programs.