Carbon Tariffs Expectations Of Sino-us Trade Influence And Countermeasures Research

The U.S. Congress approved the “American Clean Energy Security Act” on June26,2009. It was mentioned in this act that the United States would impose carbon tariffs onhigh-carbon products from China and other countries which hadn’t implemented emissionreduction measures in2020. This thesis attempts to analyze two problems: What kind ofimpact on the trade between the two countries will there be if the United States begins toimpose carbon tariffs on high-carbon products from China? What kind of attitudes anddecisions will China and the United States take or make being faced with the problem ofcarbon tariffs?First, through analyzing the partial equilibrium and general equilibrium of China andthe United States with economic methods, the thesis has reached a conclusion that bothChina and the United States will be influenced if the United States imposes carbon tariffson high-carbon products from China. The influences on China include export decreases,increase in high-carbon products costs and prices, exacerbation of terms of trade and lowersocial welfare level. The influences on the United States include import decreases, higherimport prices, improvement of terms of trade and also a possibility of a higher socialwelfare level.Second, with the methods of classic game theory and evolutionary game theory, thisthesis has analyzed the question that what kind of attitudes and decisions will China andthe United States take or make being faced with the problem of carbon tariffs. Theconclusion is: Whether it is under the classical game theory or the evolutionary gametheory, when being faced with the problem of carbon tariffs, there is a great possibility thatthe United States will make the decision to impose carbon tariffs, and also a greatpossibility that China will make the decision to accept the carbon tariffs. Therefore, Chinashould actively respond to the possible incoming carbon tariffs. The specific policyrecommendations are:(1) to increase high-tech investments and develop low-carboneconomy;(2) to expand domestic demand, change the disadvantage of excessive exportdependency;(3) to increase investments in green businesses;(4) to actively participate inthe carbon customs rulemaking.