The Improvement Of Traditional Methods Of Capital Requirements Forecasts And Combination Forecast Method Research

This paper introduced the capital requirements forecast and the combination forecastmethod and the origin and the development of the prediction, it show commonly used capitalrequirements prediction method: sales percentages method, factor analysis, the forecastmethod, the best capital habits cash holdings cost model and the stochastic model,which isstudied and analyzed, and with the flaws of the traditional capital requirements method, putforward the detailed improvements. Improve the traditional capital requirements to considerfactors: enterprise life cycle to the different needs of different funds, inflation economicconditions and the traditional funds differences forecast method ignore price change factor,using quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis methods.In this paper, the predictions put forward the volume of business and considering theeconomic development in the period has been in the mild inflation countries,the predictionsshould considered to have to deal with inflation factors, the effect of capital demand anddiscounted cash flow of the volume of the business and influence of random model ofprocessing method. In full consideration of the above factors, in base of improving thetraditional forecasting method, each individual predictions that the traditional predictionmethod combined forecasting results in the study of the single forecasting model optimizationeach established on the basis of the capital requirements combination forecast model, andusing the statistical analysis method (as a linear regression method, Multiple linear regression,time weight regression forecast model, etc) to determine the weight of each combinationforecast model parameter and error. For the sampling error, error analysis of the factors andestimate and take hypothesis test, so as to make money for the amount of prediction can moreaccurately. In the establishment of combination forecast model, the weight and thedetermination of error are discussed in detail and listed the optimal method to determine theweights, a linear regression method to determine the, nonlinear regression method todetermine the time and considering the weight of the established method to determine thepredicted regression model, in order to make a combined forecasting model is more perfect.In this paper, the capital requirements after combination forecast can acquire morereliable forecast data. first,the optimized method of the traditional forecasting get each prediction point, then combine forecast from prediction intervals, causes the enterprise to geta more reliable prediction to arrange financing plan and management, for enterprise effectivemanagement funds and capital financing activities lay the foundation.