Study On Prediction Of Suitable Arable Land Quantity Based On Combination Forecast Method

Land resource is indispensable nature resourse which supports the survival and development of mankind, especially the cultivated land resources. With the development of social economy, the contradictions between the sharp decrease of the cultivated land and non-agricultural construction land that occupied the cultivated has become increasingly conspicuous. Surely it needs resort to the reasonable and scientific land use planning to solve the contradiction between the limits of the land area and the growth of land demands. Furthermore, the prediction of the amount of cultivated land is an important component and the core content of the land use planning, and it is the basis process of land management. The scientific and accurate prediction results directly relate to land distribution within various departments in the next several years and the consistency of land use spactial layout. Scientific prediction can rise to harmonize the contradiction between the constructure and agricultural land, among land use in various agricultural departments, which arrives the balance of supply and demand of land use, creates conditions for rational utilization of every inch of the land, continuously improves the ecological environment and the development of various sectors of the national economy.The reliability of the forecast depends largely on the correct choice of scientific prediction method .Early the single method is usually used to predict the amount of cultivated land, and the forecast results is not scientifically. In this paper we predict the cultivated land with Combination forecast method. Firstly, the methods of the food security demand, the tendency extrapolation and surplus are used to forecast the arable land protection scale. Then the accuracy of each method is qualitatively analyzed, combined with the actual JingShan natural and social economic conditions and land utilization, according to the reliability of three kinds of forecasting results, the weigh is given to determine the arable cultivated land. Result shows the combination method based on the each prediction method improves scientific and accuracy of the predictions and has better applicability...