The Comparative Study On China’s Inflation Rate Measurement

Inflation is refers to the prices continued to rise and cause the depreciating currency, the purchasing power of people falling process. Inflation is a worldwide problem, no matter in the capitalist countries or in the socialist countries,it is effect the normal increase of the economy a comprehensive disease, and is the economic development process repeated attacks of killer diseases, therefore inflation by governments and people to care for. The measures of inflation also become international statisticians and economic field of study of one of the hot issues. Inflation is the process of economic activities of each other and the comprehensive reflection of the opposite factors, current theories and literature focus on different perspective, measure the rate of inflation different methods and results. But no matter what the method, must according to the economic activity of the monetary contact objects to research, or else I’ll make measure results from reality. In the existing literature at home and abroad and the research angle and methods and diversity of research results provide us with the rich reference and broad research space.Based on the existing domestic and foreign about inflation measure based on the study of literature, through the calendar year related economic data to measure method of the empirical analysis, and through the theory and empirical analyses and compares the characteristics of various measurement methods and advantage, and concludes that the CPI is China’s inflation rate to the measure of main index, then the key to the CPI measure are analyzed, using pulse and variance decomposition measurement analysis method in the CPI to filter leading indicators, and determine its first period, thus establishing the CPI first index system in our country. On this basis, using the principal component analysis fully extracted information leading indicators, and reduce the first comprehensive index system of dimension.The content of this paper is as follows:firstly, it is about the inflation rate at home and abroad to the measure of the literature research of different perspective based on inflation measure theory is on the empirical analysis of the; The second is to influence the inflation rate measure index theory study, and through the empirical method with the main CPI were related to the first indicator; The third is leading indicators of the comprehensive evaluation method to establish CPI prediction model; the last is to inflation measure, CPI measure and the treatment of the current our country faces inflation put forward the corresponding policy frame and the policy suggestions.This paper according to the purpose of constructing applied econometrics model, has the following features:First, all models are built on rigorous theoretical, the goal of models building is policy simulation, evaluation and forecast; Seeond this paper proeeeds from reality and builds simple models that can simulate the aetual problems; Third, all models are based on China’s actual economic characteristic modeling; Fourth, all models with strict economic theory as a foundation, set in advance of the logical relationship between the variables, and then to measure economic method as the tool, the necessary of empirical studies; Fifth, the author Pays attention to the innovations of the research methods.Innovation appropriate on variables choosing, models building, and so on.