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An Empiricial Study Of The Inventory Cycle Of China

Posted on:2013-10-28Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:2249330395452027Subject:Comparative Economic Systems science
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In modern economics Schumpeter produce an effect on modern societ because of his economic cycle nestificition. Nest theory of the so-called cycle,three simultaneous nested within each life cycle theory. His cycle was divided into three types:short-cycle, cycle and long cycle, Schumpeter believes that although the three kinds of cycles classification exist varying criteria, it did not appear irreconcilable contradiction. There are three cycles in each economy, each long-wave cycle consists of medium cycle, each medium cycle consists of a short cycle. In general, long-wavecycle consists of six medium cycles, each medium cycle consists of three short-period.In nested theory of three cycle, the inventory cycle regard as the unit of analysis for the cycle and it is important for long cycle of guiding significance, while the inventory cycle can’t do without the mid-term operating environment. By summing up the interest rates, commodity prices, production and employment statistics, the United States and Britain1890-1922:U.S. economists Kitchin found the every2-4years, most of the vendors will fall into "too much production-inventory accumulation-to reduce production-Inventory-excessive production......" The average duration of40months of regular fluctuations in short-cycle called the Kitchin cycleThe issue is about the Inventory Cycle division of China since2000. First, four stages of the Inventory Cycle are proposed.then the corresponding index systems which are used to reflect the running conditions of four stages are constructed, including PPI and rate of capacity utilization,the calculation of the latter need to use the HP filter. From the aspests of business cycle and macro economic backgrand the rationality of Inventory Cycle division has been proofed.Last PMI index systems are used to analysed the latter two Inventory Cycle, which alse accord with the running conditions of four stages.In order to further specific observation of China’s current economic position in the inventory cycle, and the last five years the operation of the inventory cycle, we choose the PMI index system to determine each stage of the inventory cycle in recent years to run. PMI data proves once again that our logic:external demand changes-changes in inventory behavior-inventory changes-changes in raw materials-purchase quantity of change. Through this process, we can more precisely reflect the current inventory statusand trends of the next stage of the forecast inventory production.This research combine enterprise level and the macro level to make the appropriatedivision for the short-period (ie,the inventory cycle), so that the two confirm each other,support each other, changing the past, only the output gap and price level use avariablethe division of the cycle,that is to say to add the original enterprise level content.For the enterpirse level, especially atfer2006PMI sequence data.
Keywords/Search Tags:Inventory Cycle, HP filter, rate of capacity utilization, PPI
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