Research On The Measurement Of Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate In China And Its Influencing Factors

Since the early 1990 s,overcapacity of China has become apparent.Now overcapacity of industry sector is becoming more serious,which has become a persistent disease in industrial and economic of China,therefore,"overcapacity reduction" is the primary task of supply-side structural reform at present stage.For a long time,in order to reduce overcapacity,China have been enacted a series of policy measures,but the effect of implementation is not significant.At present,there is urgent need for academic community to strengthen the research on overcapacity and its formation mechanism.We must clarify the situation and the influencing factors of overcapacity in industry sector,and we should propose policies and measures to reduce overcapacity.At present,the methods of measurement include direct measurements and indirect measurements for capacity utilization rate.The direct measurements obtain the capacity utilization rate through corporate survey.The indirect measurements include peak to peak method,cost function method,production function method,data envelopment analysis method,stochastic production frontier method and cointegration method.On the basis of comparing and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of different methods of measurement,this paper uses data envelopment analysis(DEA)method to estimate the capacity utilization rate of 30 provinces(except Tibet)in 2000-2015.We may draw the conclusion that China has seen widespread overcapacity,the change in capacity utilization rate is consistent with the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the effect of policy measures for overcapacity reduction is not significant.For more comprehensive and deep analysis of China industrial overcapacity,and clarify the current situation of overcapacity.More importantly,lay the foundation of analyze the influence factors of capacity utilization rate.In this paper,we adopt 29 industries from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the capacity utilization rate.It shows that further verify the foreword conclusion.In addition,by comparing the calculation results of capacity utilization rate in the region and industry,we may draw the conclusion that the time of occurrence is almost identical in the region and industry,and China industrial overcapacity is already very serious.This paper studies the existing theory of overcapacity,and we decompose the three kinds of factors of industrial capacity utilization rate,they are cyclical factors,institutional factors and market factors.Based on the theoretical analysis of the factors of the capacity utilization rate,and adopt panel data of 30 provinces(except Tibet)in 2000-2015.Through the generalized moment estimation(GMM),the three kinds of influence factors of capacity utilization rate are tested empirically.It shows that capacity utilization is positively correlated with economic cycle,the ratio of the general budgetary revenue of the local government to gross regional product,and Degree of marketization.And capacity utilization is negative correlation with the ratio of local fiscal general budget expenditure to gross regional product.The following summarizes the conclusion draw in this study: Firstly,an early warning mechanism for production capacity should be established,in order to give warning signals in time.Secondly,we should reform the fiscal decentralization and performance appraisal system to reduce local government intervention.Thirdly,we should improve the market mechanism and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.