| Since the1990s, along with China’s rapid economic development and increasingly opening degree, Sino-US trade enters the fast track of development. Bilateral trade volume is growing continuously. In2006, the two countries became the second largest trading partner of each other. The trade between the two countries has become an important part of foreign trade of its own and played an important role in the economic development of the two economies. But, there is a huge disequilibrium in the trade of the two countries. In the21century, the Sino-US trade disequilibrium has been aggravated. The United States takes advantage of this opportunity to claim that China acquires unfair trade advantages through undervaluing its own currency and clamor for a fast appreciation of RMB in order to tackle the Sino-US trade disequilibrium. RMB suffers tremendous appreciation pressure from the media. However, since the reform of RMB exchange rate regime in2005, both the nominal rate and real effective exchange rate have gone up substantially which has not reversed the Sino-US trade disequilibrium. The disequilibrium of the trade between two countries is getting worse. What kind of impact the appreciation of RMB has on the Sino-US trade disequilibrium and whether the appreciation of RMB can solve the disequilibrium of the trade between two countries has become a very important issue in the Sino-US economic and political relations. As an important indicator of a country’s real purchasing power and international competitiveness, real effective exchange rate will have a big influence on a country’s foreign trade. Therefore, an objective valuation of the impact of real effective exchange rate on the Sino-US trade disequilibrium will not only improve the Sino-US economic relations, but also provide basis for decision making in the future reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and the formation of a new exchange rate mechanism.This paper is based on partial equilibrium and equilibrium exchange rate theory, select quarterly data as sample from1995to2011and use Johansen cointegration test to empirically analyze the impact of RMB’s real effective exchange rate on the Sino-US trade disequilibrium.This paper is structured as follows. The first chapter describes the background and significance of this topic. On the basis of the research results from other scholars’previous study at home and abroad, this article bring up its own research ideas and methods.The second chapter mainly analyzes the status and characteristics of Sino-US trade disequilibrium. First, this article conduct statistical analysis on the export and import and trade balance between the two countries on the aggregate Sino-US trade data. Second, on the basis of HS commodity classification statistics, this paper analyzes various commodities trade of the two countries. Last, according to the analytical results, this thesis summarizes the characteristics of Sino-US trade disequilibrium.The third chapter first analyzes the trend of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from the first quarter of1995to the fourth quarter of2011. And then on the basis of ERER model, this paper select terms of trade, openness, fiscal expenditure to GDP and broad money supply growth rate to measure the equilibrium value of RMB’s real effective exchange rate. Last, this article analyzes the dislocation degree of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and reason of the dislocation.The forth chapter empirically analyzes the impact of RMB’s real effective exchange rate on Sino-US total trade and commodity trade balance based on HS classification. Upon the partial equilibrium determined by the export, along with the GDP of China and the United States, real effective exchange rate and its dislocation of RMB and the reform of RMB’s exchange rate regime, this paper analyze the factors which influence Sino-US total trade and various commodities trade.The fifth chapter is the main conclusion and suggestion of this paper. |
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