Research On The Impact And Countermeasure Of RMB's Real Exchange Rate Volatility To Sino-US Trade

Since the first bilateral trade between China and the United States,the RMB exchange rate has gradually become the focus of attention in the economic development of China and the United States.Chinese economic development is extremely rapid.China gradually becomes one of the world's major trading powers,and plays an important role as the main source of import and export destination in the international trade market.From trade surplus to trade deficit,the United States government always spearhead the RMB exchange rate system and charged China several times over the years as a currency manipulator,and considered that the RMB exchange rate has hurt both domestic economic and employment in the United States.Trade between China and the United States continues surplus situation for many years,trade friction has intensified.As the two largest trading countries in the world,the trade friction between China and the United States has a great influence on the overall development of the world economy.It can be said that RMB exchange rate is always a sensitivity topic in the development of Sino-US economic relations.Since the reform and opening up,the People's Bank of China has repeatedly announced new policies on the RMB exchange rate reform,and the RMB exchange rate fluctuations range has also been adjusted several times.However,the Sino-US trade surplus has not been effectively controlled and improved.In contrast,the Sino-US trade surplus is still increasing year by year.For many years,many scholars have done a lot of research on the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the development of Sino-US bilateral trade.For many years,many scholars have done a lot of research on the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the development of bilateral trade between China and the United States,but there is no unified conclusion.With the announcement of the Central Bank of China in 2015 to further deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism,devaluation of nearly 2% changed the appreciation situation of Yuan in the past years,and then the RMB real exchange rate fluctuations also increased.The next year,the volatility of RMB exchange rate has become a key word in China's economic development.The new president of the United States Trump's attitude on trade relations with China is also a focus.After a new round of RMB exchange rate reform,China is facing new challenges in the development of SinoUS trade.Under the new situation of deepening reform of RMB exchange rate regime,there is timely and realistic meaning for investigating the impact of the real exchange rate fluctuations on the development of trade between China and the United States.In this paper,we use the quarterly data of the real exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB as the independent variable time series.The real exchange rate is chosen because it does not contain the difference in price levels between the two countries,so that it can reflect the true relative value.On this basis,it is more practical to study the impact of fluctuations of real exchange rate on Sino US trade.The first part of this paper describes the characteristics and trends of RMB real exchange rate and the progress of trade between China and the United States in recent years.The second part makes a brief analysis on the influence of the fluctuation of the real exchange rate on Sino US trade.In this part,this paper will use the relevant data for analysis,and shows the specific data chart to make the change of variables can be more intuitive to observe.Then,this paper will use econometric model to explain how the fluctuations in the real exchange rate influences the volume of export and import between China and the United States.In the stage of empirical analysis,this paper will use the quarterly data from 2005 to 2016 for analysis.The RMB's real exchange rate volatility will use moving average standard deviation to calculate.This paper will take 2000 as the base year to calculate the annual CPI monthly values,the real exchange rate per quarterly data will be used.After that it pick out the most suitable method of cointegration test,and establish regression model with the Eviews9.5.Finally,after explaining the results of the regression equation,the long-run equilibrium coefficients of the import equation and the export equation can be analyzed,and then according to the conclusion,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the development of trade between the two countries.