The Multi-dimensional Analysis Of Economic Climate Indexes In China Based On Direct Filter Approach

China’s economy in the30years after the reform and opening up has a special development form.Economic structure development wasn’t balanced, overseas market demand stimulate economic effect larger, domestic demand needs to be mining, gross national product maintain growth, CPI phased high operation, the government regulation and control measures is frequent, market function of unceasingly strengthens, the social economy system complexity increases, the economy operation system has undergone a fundamental change, economic cycle fluctuation of the market features and function gradually revealed, and these also resulted in various weeks relationship is very complicated. Especially in the last two times the international financial crisis on China’s economy has more and more influence, in a modern market economy and economic globalization, the importance of economic prosperity monitoring early warning more prominence.The current economic prosperity monitoring method for the research and application of already very mature, the use of more is seasonal adjustment methods and synthetic index method (first index and consistent index), to economic index of the first lag relationship between classification study and to establish their own synthesis index, to economic prosperity monitoring and forecasting. But because of the complexity of the social economic system increases, the economy operation system has undergone a fundamental change, the index fluctuation more complex, mutual disturbance more frequently, the influence of the index between the increasingly close, this makes the traditional method highlights two problems:on the one hand, the data signal extraction of seasonal adjustment method in extracting trend cycle term, due to use of bilateral filter, resulting in the most important real-time signal?It is also based on these two aspects of the problem, this paper first foothold in real-time signal extraction method using more desirable-direct filtering method (DFA), another to establish multidimensional boom analytical framework to consider the economic system as a whole. Direct filtering method, extraction of the signal than the the X12more timely detect turning point, there will not be the end of the X12method drift. And take advantage of the trend cycle component of DFA’s seasonally adjusted composite index of the filtered signal X12method compared to the composite index, basically in all important turning point in the vicinity of more timely. Multidimensional sentiment analysis method of analysis of the economic boom running will undoubtedly be more comprehensive and accurate, and in detail to determine the drivers of each economy turning for the macro-control agencies to provide more targeted policy recommendations, and thus on the economy timely and effective regulation and control. In the empirical part of this paper, the use of sentiment analysis method based on the direct filtering method multidimensional above a more detailed analysis of the economy of our country’s macroeconomic. The first of these dimensions, respectively, for the price, consumption, investment, exports, real estate to establish climate index system; then to establish macroeconomic climate index system and macroeconomic early warning signal system.Important conclusions of this paper are two main aspects:This article uses the method compared with traditional methods, mainly by two differences:First, the traditional method of signal extraction, is generally used in symmetric filters to extract data signal, which makes traditional methods at one end of the real-time data needed trend extrapolation, which will produce the signal drift and delay, the boom analysis bias at one end of the real-time data. This article uses the direct filtering method is based on asymmetric filters, one end of the performance of real-time data is better able to solve the problem of signal drift and delay. Second, with the increased complexity of the socio-economic system, the relationship between our various weeks during very complex cycle of certain indicators or indicators synthesis alone as an indicator is difficult to depict the complexity of the economy, is also very difficult to fully reflect the operational status of the major part of the economy, were established several important dimensions This article uses multidimensional framework, the macroeconomic climate index system, such integrated explore the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic each dimension, and will reflect a more comprehensive macro economic development, and can provide a very clear policy recommendations for government agencies.Comprehensive empirical boom analysis results, respectively monitoring of macro-economic conditions, and various dimensions, empirical results show that this economy is in a downward trend, but the leading index has rebounded, macroeconomic may be bottoming out in the next quarter; consumption rise of signs of investment is still relatively weak, the real estate is still low volatility, and prices there are still signs of a rebound. In response to these conditions, the current policy-makers should focus on consumption stimulation, increase income re-distribution efforts, to a rational consumer; Local governments should moderate increase in supporting investment projects, policy and financial support to increase the high-tech enterprises, export enterprises efforts; take into account the price adjustment and control of the real estate industry, to avoid ups and downs-recovery or soaring prices of recovery, and the livelihood of the real estate industry development must be within reasonable limits.