The Establishment Of Yunnan Macroeconomic Climate Analysis And Early Warning Signal System

The Chinese reform and open door policy has twenty years, Our country's economic has gradually walked out of the framework of the planning economic. The socialist economy market was preliminarily established, it becomes the basic mean of resource allocation. In the effect of the rules about the market, the socialism market economy must have periodic fluctuations. And the frequency of the fluctuations is increasing. Thus, the macroeconomic fluctuations problems have been concerned by more and more economic researcher.It is important to have the far-sight and predictability for the macroeconomy, is necessary to establish a reasonable and perfective economic monitoring and warning signal system for the macroeconomy at the same time. The research about building the preceding indicators consistent indicators and lagging indicators system is useful for the theory and practice.This article chooses industrial output as the standard indicator of the prosperity analysis in the province of yunnan. First of all,we choose some indicators about the finance,the price,and so on. Then we adopt the time relevant analysis, the k-1 information and the clustering methods to divide the economic indicators.They are divided preliminary by the preceding,the consistent and the lagging indicators. We can use the HDI method to determine the reference date of the prosperity fluctuations. In order to analyse the characters of the macroeconomic prosperity index, the preceding dispersal index,the consistent dispersal index and the lagging dispersal index are compiled.We also compile the preceding composite index,the consistent composite index and the lagging composite index.At last we choose the indicators which can represent the major aspects of the macroeconomic activities to establish the Yunnan economic monitoring and warning signal system.The figure about the trend of the composite index is also compiled. By comparing with the signal system index, the consistent composite index has the same trend and the same cycle changes. This shows that the signal system can not only reflect the economic cycle, but also reflect the fluctuating range. To some extend,this also shows the choice of the warning indicators and the warning line is reasonable.