A Study Of Financial Crisis Prediction Model Based On EVA

Along with market competition intensified and the development of economic globalization, enterprises are facing unprecedented impact and challenges. Establishing a reasonable and effective financial warning model can help enterprises to avoid risk timely, so as to realize the sustainable development of the enterprises. But also it can provide corresponding decision information for investors, creditors, government and stakeholders. And provide useful information to the demanders.This article selects40special treated listed companies as the sample, According to certain principles and selected40normal enterprises as matching sample. We use the financial data to calculated EVA and establish financial warning system. Finally, we use Logistic regression analysis method to establish financial crisis warning model.Because in January1,2007listed companies in China carried out the new accounting standards, so we use the data of2007and2008to calculated EVA according the new accounting standards, and use the date of2006to calculated EVA according the old standards. Then make the EVA index combine with the traditional index. Finally, we selected21variables to establish financial crisis warning model based on EVA.Firstly, use T test to test significant differences of the sample’s financial date between ST company and normal company, we select indexes that have significant differences between ST company and normal company to establish warning model. But sometimes there are correlations among them. In order to dispel correlations, we use the relevant analysis and remove the high correlation index. Finally I use Forward:Wald to establish financial crisis warning model.Finally through the inspection I found model has good warning effect.