Study On Early-warning System Of The Financial Crisis Of Listed Firm

With the development of our national economic reform, as a benefit business enterprise facing a more and more vigorous market competition, the finance has been occupying an extremely important position in the business enterprise. The safety and success of finance is a basic foundation of existence and development in a business enterprise. But the outer environment, the property of sudden changing and unexpected of a market, and the influence of different decision makers' ability make the business enterprise face the management failure, get into a financial crisis or even a danger of bankrupt every moment. Therefore build up an early-warning system of the financial crisis to trace and monitor the process of financial running in business enterprise, and to discover the financial crisis signal early and predict the financial condition of the business enterprise, which has a great significant reality meaning for the executive, investor, creditor, government or other related benefits corpuses. In order to finish my paper, I explain it from following four parts:First part: Introduction. First,combining the relevant international concept,contacting our national situation, the definition of finance is put forward. Second, although both domestic and international scholars are aware of the importance to set up an early-warning system of finance crisis, and have already carried on a research, there are still some weaknesses and shortages in both theory and practice, which is exactly the problem that this passage wants to solve.Second part: The basic theories and method of finance early-warning. There are many basic theories of finance early-warning. This part introduced theories of crisis management, theories of adverse circumstances management in business enterprise, theories of diagnosis for business enterprise and theories of risk management.Third part: Give examples and analysis. This part is the main part of the paper and brings the innovative view. On the basis of Z score model that was studied by Altman in America, use the principal composition analysis method of statistics, take three years' finance index of 30 listed manufacturing company as the study sample, recur to the SPSS13.0 statistic software at the same time, build up a early-warning model of principal composition.According to the finance index calculate a score of early-warning for the business enterprise, which is divided into five levels of early-warning, including red district, light red district, yellow district, light green district, green district. Then, find out the position of the business enterprise in accordance with the early warning scores of 30 test samples. At last, the author gets the conclusion, which is finance early-warning model of principal composition has a stronger ability in early-warning.Four part: The conclusion and outlook of this Study. Through the study on early-warning model of the financial crisis, the author puts forward a conclusion and an outlook of it.