Research On Risk And Agent-based Experimental Pricing Of Small And Middle-Sized Enterprise Credit Guarantee

In recent years, with the accelerating rate of China’s economic development, SMEs occupy an increasingly important position in China’s social development, but the problem of financing difficult has seriously hampered the development of SMEs. SME credit guarantee products are known to play an active role in improving the SME financing situation, however, due to the credit guarantee industry needs multi-participant and affectes by many factors, it has been recognized as the world high-risk industry. Many researchers are studying on the mechanism, the risk-sharing way, the method of product pricing and so on about the SME credit guarantee products.This paper is written based on the research of the status of SMEs in the national economy and the present situation of SMEs financing, references to the domestic and foreign research results, elaborated the theoretical background of SMEs credit guarantee products, analyzed and classified the credit guarantee risk factors, summed up experience of other countries in the development of SMEs credit guarantee industry, described the current pricing methods of credit guarantee product, especially given a detailed description of the Monte Carlo simulation of financial products pricing method.The main contribution of the paper is using the Agent-based Computational Finance method to price the SMEs credit guarantee product. The researching of Agent-based Computational Finance method was originated from the theory of behavioral finance. It was used to through computer technology for reappearance of scene to analysis the behavior characteristics of onlookers theme, and study on the management complexity and regularity. The modeling method of Agent-based Computational Finance is different from traditional modeling methods, it is a scenario modeling method This paper used the Netlogo software to establish the initial simulation model, measuring the SMEs operation risks and losses in simulation environment, presenting the new idea in pricing the SMEs credit guarantee product through simulation technology. But in order to simplified, some practical factors can not be set into the model, these problems need further research in the future.