Research On The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors To The Minor Enterprise

The vigorous development of minor enterprises have a strong economic externality, which is not only an important force to promote national economic sustained, stable and fast to grow, but also play an active role in the adjustment of economic structure, increasing employment opportunities. However, due to the small scale and relatively weak financial strength, they are vulnerable to external macroeconomic impact and have a weak anti-risk ability, so that minor enterprises have credit risk characteristics. They will play an immeasurable role in China’s future economic development. There is an real and important significance to strengthen research on the credit risk of minor enterprises to control its credit risk and maintain its stable development.In recent years, domestic and international macroeconomic situation is unstable, minor enterprises have been presenting the greater credit risk characteristics, which shows that the macroeconomic has an greater impact on the credit risk of minor enterprises. This article described the credit risk and macroeconomic theory, and analysis the mechanism of the impact of macroeconomic factors on credit risk for minor enterprises. Subsequently,75samples based on the board listed companies2006-2008data is selected. Firstly, the KMV model used to calculate the distance to default(DD) of the sample companies as the substitution variable of credit risk, describing the level of credit risk. On this basis, the distance to default (DD) as the dependent variable, GDP growth rate and consumer price index representing the macroeconomic environment, policy interest rate and money supply on behalf of the monetary, exchange rate on behalf of the exchange rate policy, the five variables as the independent variable, financial variables as the control variables, using the Panel Date model to regression simulation to study the relationship between macroeconomic factors and credit risk.The results show that there is a significant linear relationship between five independent variables distance and dependent variables. The external variables is even more than the internal financial factors influencing the degree. Test results show that:the price index and interest rates is negatively correlated with corporate default distance, it also reflects a positive correlation between corporate credit risk and price index and interest rates, the higher the price index, the higher the interest rate., the greater the risk of corporate credit., and exchange rate, money supply, GDP growth rates have a positive correlation with corporate default distance. which is negatively correlated with the corporate credit risk, that is the devaluation of the RMB, money supply increased, the increase in GDP growth rate, the smaller credit risk of the minor enterprises, on the contrary, the credit risk greater. Finally, the conclusions put forward three proposals:the creditors need to pay attention to macroeconomic changes, reducing the credit losses; and minor enterprises need to enhance the insight adaptability, reducing the credit risk; governments need to formulate a rational policy, strengthening support for minor enterprise.