| Early warning of financial risks has been a hot topic in the field of academia andindustry research, the financial of enterprises is not only directly related to thesurvival and development, but also affected the country’s economic. The domesticresearch early warning model to the enterprise treat financial indicators as explanatoryvariables shows great limitations, but the enterprise’s survival and developmentdepend on the macroeconomic environment, including market and governmentpolicies. Therefore, through there search of scholars at home and abroad, explore theinfluence of macroeconomic factors on the financial situation of enterprises.It selected macroeconomic variables by the method of quantitative analysis andempirical analysis, and then set up three different early warning models forcomparative analysis, to explore the external and internal factors of the financial risksof enterprise.It selected156listed manufacturing enterprises of2007-2012as the researchsample, and selected11macro-economic indicators and24financial indicators, andscreening them with factor analysis method, and analysis the different periodmacroeconomic data, founding that when using the t-2years financial data, t-3macroeconomic data, it can be optimum. Then establish models of discriminant model,logistic regression model and BP neural network model of early warningestablishment, By comparison, we found that prediction model based on macro data,the results become more preciser, modeling samples and predicting samples resultsdifference more smaller, more stronger ability to explain the model. In themacroeconomic variables, the most important factors affects the financial ofenterprises is the state of industrial development, the next is the national monetarypolicy. Of the three models, the neural network model is the highest predictionmodels.The result shows that macro economic environment is an important factor thatcan not be ignored in the enterprise financial risk early warning. |
